I cannot find a negative here -Thalidomide is THE best current treatment available for cancer (there may be better ones, but you can't get them just by enrolling in a registration program). Doctors WILL prescribe it OFF-LABEL if their patients ask them. -THALOMID alone would make a nice story but the revenues from this will boost Celgene's other products which are themselves solid prospects -The chart shows a STRONG, rapid recovery from the massive selloff in August, characteristic of a very strong stock (look at Yahoo's chart for that same period) -They sold 1M in two days last quarter.
There are companies like SUGN, OXGN, ENMD etc. whose products are more than a year and millions of dollars away and even then they will not have the immense storehouse of data previously accumulated on Thalidomide in the 50's. These stocks are not plummetting, nor will they. Neither will CELG. The risk arbitrage here is far and away the best I've seen of ANY stock. The downside is AT MOST a trading range of 6 to 11. The upside is the $*#&$*#& moon. Who wouldn't take that bet?
I've waited through market inefficiency before and this is one of those periods. Everyone I knew knew ENMD was for real earlier this year, YHOO a year ago, AOL four years ago. There was plenty of time to buy before the great unwashed caught up. You just never know when that is going to be. Actually, this is the only downside as well...good products may go unheard, no matter how good they are by an ignorant market/consumer...but once they catch on, they catch fire!
is one you can find too. Now go to the ENMD chart and you'll see that just very recently they took a big hit. Then go to the Celg chart and you'll see they also took a hit and never recovered. Just how long are you willing to wait. Rosy glasses don't make money.
If I pulled my money out of this stock Monday, and put it into something else, and CELG then for some reason went up a couple of points on Monday, and what I bought went down, then I would hold you personally responsible buddy.
-I don't see from your message what exactly the negative is you are referring to: chart looks like a base range, normal fluctuations.
-3 months (since the Thalidomide approval) is not long to wait, and 1 month (since the launch) is no time at all.
-I post exactly because I am afraid that my glasses ARE rosy, so please, I appreciate your input, specifically what is the negative here? I am assuming that my glasses are rosy, but I still see NO DOWNSIDE!