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Celgene Corporation Message Board

  • mfalk_86 mfalk_86 Dec 5, 1998 3:16 PM Flag


    Let me be the first, to congratulate all you
    longs that were around when I was. It looks like you
    guys might have finnally hit. Unfortunately, as you
    all know I dropped my stock, and said I would pick
    them back up on the first of the year, but I think I
    was about 3 weeks off. If this stock hits the high
    8's again next week, from profit taking, which I
    think it will, I will load up then, if not, have a fun
    ride to the top.

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    • <<. If this stock hits the high 8's again
      next week, from profit taking, which I think it will,
      I will load up then,>>

      Look at the
      charts. This explosive move $9 1/4 to $11 7/16 on Friday
      was an event two and a half months in the making. The
      $10 resistance level was like a brick wall that the
      stock couldn't break through. Now that it finally has,
      that will be a strong support level. Purely from a
      technical perspective, this stock won't be in the 8's again
      for a long time. Even a 50% retracement of the recent
      climb puts us around the $10 support level. From a
      fundamental perspective, it will NEVER be in the 8's again
      UNLESS some catostrophic news event occurs (a Thalomid
      baby being born, the FDA requiring the removal of the
      product from pharmacies, etc.). I believe this move on
      very heavy volume was fueled by the cumulative
      knowledge of the last few months (news releases from the
      company and several different research centers), as well
      as a possible "awakening" and "enlightenment" of the
      shorts. Even if half of Friday's volume was from shorts
      covering, we would still need four to five days like that
      for all of the shorts to cover. By then, this stock
      would been in the teens without a problem.

      There is still more news to come - Monday and indeed
      the following week will be very interesting! In a few
      days, I will have been invested in this company for two
      years. It's been a long wait, but I've got a profitable
      position now. That does not make me any more eager to sell
      here at $11 or $12 than it did back in August. My
      aspirations, as well as many other longs, are much higher than
      that. I just can't see profit-taking in the $8-11 range
      as you suggest. This kind of stock had too much risk
      associated with it in 1996 to mid 1998 for investors like
      myself to be satisfied with such a small gain. All of
      the Celgene investors I personally know are in this
      thing for much, much bigger gains than selling at this
      price would provide. After the washout to the $4 level
      in September, there are many more strong hands in
      the stock now than ever before. Don't underestimate
      the resolve of the current long investors in this
      company. If there aren't many willing sellers between here
      and $18 a share, this stock could soar to that level
      in one day on the right news and an institution or
      two placing big buy orders.... not to mention the
      shorts getting steamrolled, willing to buy at any level
      to save their skin.

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