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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

  • ATmouse ATmouse Feb 21, 1999 12:56 PM Flag

    First message from a new boy on the bloc

    I'm a Celgene long who's owned shares since the
    fall of 1997. I invested on the theory that it was a
    2-3 year proposition before developments would/could
    develop fully enough for the market to reflect them in
    the share price. That 2-3 year period still has
    nearly 1-2 years to run, and in the meantime all
    developments seem to have been positive (at least the ones
    which we find out about. The share price, meanwhile,
    has been a roller coaster, reflecting the general
    stock market for the most part, but generally positive.
    My head tells me to be patient and wait for
    developments to take place as originally predicted [I try to
    ignore my fears, as well as the obvious activities of
    short-sellers which feed my fears]- so far so good.

    I
    started reading this board in late December when I bought
    a computer, and I've gotten into the habit of
    reading it daily. I've learned a lot, particularly from
    people such as moranpicks who is analytical and takes
    the long view in his occasional posts. On the other
    hand, it's sometimes crazy-making to pay attention to a
    lot of the people with short-term perspectives. On
    the whole, I appreciate the efforts of the
    posters.

    I will continue to follow this board, and might
    even get up the courage to reply from time to time. A
    couple of specific throwaway observations: Ski3456's
    contributions were really weird- he went from manic, and
    supposedly privy to some good/positive information, to
    disappeared. Maybe he did himself in when his father-in-law's
    prediction about good things being about to happen to
    Celgene stock on January (or was it February?) 4th never
    happened. It would be nice to know that he's really still
    alive and well, even if for some reason he's lost
    interest in this board- I sometimes worry about people who
    live in Princeton.
    And enzyman- wow, is he on a
    roll! I guess he's trying to fill in the void, now that
    demand for Celgene shares has dried up completely
    (hopefully temporarily) and that many posters seem to have
    gone into hiding. The Louis Rukheyser idea is
    interesting. It seems to born of the frustration over the fact
    that the market ignores Celgene's positive
    developments with Thalidomid and other things (fewer than
    100,000 shares trading these days), while Entremed gets
    great market attention even with seemingly-bad news.
    John Jackson clearly isn't a self-promoter, which may
    hurt in the short run, and thalidomide's tragic past
    history isn't going to go away in people's minds any time
    soon. all of this argues for patience, and faith that
    in the end Celgene will prove itself to be a good,
    maybe great, but clearly viable entity.

    Enough
    for a sleepy Sunday morning. I'm glad I found the
    courage for this initial posting, and I hope I and the
    other longs retain the courage to hold onto our shares
    for the longer haul. The short sellers and day
    traders have other agendas, obviously.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The real Value Line has a small cap service
      called OVER THE COUNTER -- SPECIAL SITUATIONS. They
      picked up Celgene in something like 1993. The library in
      Columbia, Missouri carries this service, so as soon as
      possible I will make the 90 mile journey to read the
      latest report and let you all know what they're saying.

    • >> 1)How long phase II trails will
      take?
      ANS: Anywhere from 6 months to 1 year. IMHO toward the
      shorter side of the scale since this is such a well-known
      drug.

      >> 2)If phase II trails passes, how
      long approximately phase III >> trails will
      take?
      ANS: This is the final phase before application to
      market the new drug. It should take from 6 months to 1
      year, as well. Depending on the "efficacy" seen in the
      drug. This final phase looks for how effective the drug
      is at treating the "indication" (or sickness). It is
      usually compared either with the "standard" treatment or
      occasionally no treatment at all.

      >> 3)Are there
      going to be phase IV, V, VI trials, and etc.
      ANS:
      There are no trials numbered 4,5, or 6. If the FDA
      Advisory Panel finds deficiencies in the design or
      execution of the Phase III trial, the Panel can ask (read
      rule) that the PhaseIII trial can be done
      again.

      >> 4)In your opinion, do you think EntreMed made a
      bad business >> decision by giving up
      Thalidomide?

      ANS: IMHO, EntreMed made the right choice for their
      business / technology model, which is focusing on large
      (natural) protein anti-angiogenesis agents, like AS/ES.
      Thalidomide's greatest future commercial potential is as an
      anti a-TNF agent (for the gut) or a general
      anti-inflamitory agent. It's anti-angiogenesis activity does not
      have the higher theraputic index that some of the
      newer agents have. It also has some toxic side effects
      when taken in doses typical for anti-cancer
      indications (>400 mg). Derivatives of Thalidomide
      (SelCIDS) may avoid these side-effects and thus be more
      palatable. But, <all my opinion>, Thalidomide may be
      surpassed in application by CELGENEs SelCIDs and other
      companies anti-angio agents (SUGEN, Genentec, Magannin,
      Parke-Davis, etc.)

      Minn_sea...

    • In today's Reuters(Feb. 25, 1999),
      "Feature-Nearly two dozen groups take cancer-starving route...
      Thalidomide rights to which have been licensed to Celgene[by
      EntreMed], is in phase II
      trails".

      Questions:

      1)How long phase II trails will take?

      2)If phase
      II trails passes, how long approximately phase III
      trails will take?

      3)Are there going to be phase
      IV, V, VI trials, and etc.

      4)In your opinion,
      do you think EntreMed made a bad business decision
      by giving up Thalidomide?

      Thank you for your
      answers in advance.

    • he and some other press have been plugging IMCL
      because of some Phase II studies (look it up). If he is
      astute enough to recommend IMCL so highly, why doesn't
      he tout CELG? IMCL big product is an ANTIBODY to EGF
      receptors (targeted at the cancer cell vs. the host like
      Thal). It might be a good drug, but patients will
      inevitably end up faced with resistant recurrances...that's
      just the nature of cancer. But with McCamant and
      others doing PR for them in the press, IMCL has a chance
      of popping up in the short term, then once it does
      and the promise fails to deliver for the long term,
      CELG gets hurt because people will be more skeptical
      of their good news. I have a small amount of IMCL
      just in case, but I think their story might do more
      harm than good both for CELG and for cancer
      treatment...hope not. Having the better drug available faster
      doesn't guarantee that people will figure it out. Its too
      bad.

    • Jim McCamant of the bio-technology and medical
      technology newsletters was on CNBC this morning. He
      basically said that the smaller bio-techs were suffering
      from lack of sponsorship. When the question was asked,
      "why don't they do more roadshows?", he said those who
      do them don't get anyone to show up.


      Speaking of $250 million market cap companies, Jim did say
      that once they start to move, they hardly stop at the
      $500 million mark on their way to $1 Billion.


      It was also mentioned that the large cap companies
      would probably be buying some of these "badly
      undervalued" small caps during the course of this year.


      He said too that anti-inflammatories are the big
      thing this year. Remicade for chron's and Enberel for
      arthritis have helped raise awareness on treating
      inflammatory problems.

    • so i settled for an escort 100 over invoice; oh how the mighty have fallen. still long.

    • I know that I'm better than human and better than
      feline. ASND, ADPT, LEAP, RENT, VION, NKE, etc, etc, etc.
      But ENMD went from $16 to $30 in one day -- it just
      didn't stay there.

      And IPOs spurt up all the
      time. All it takes is the elimination of IGNORANCE --
      our worst enemy, since we have the goods, they (the
      street) have the money, but they aren't knowledgeable
      enough yet today to try to beat a path to our
      door.

      But they will. And mark Mark Moran's words, he could
      easily be right.

      enzyman, annoyed about sinking
      another quarter point but focussed on the horizon, where
      I very clearly see the end of a rainbow!!!

    • 732-271-1001, where is the press release this week announcing that they will be presenting at a conference in New York.

    • on this one. CELG has to be the most exasperating
      stock I've owned in the last year (and I've had a few
      beauts). When, oh when, does the market wake up to the
      reality of this company?? It's really going to have to
      start moving to reach Mark Moran's estimate of
      $23/share by March 31. I guess I'm frustrated - and we have
      all been VERY patient. Any guesses as to when CELG
      will actually start to move?

    • The back door approach was to get fast approval
      as an "orphan drug". Research goes on. They aren't
      trying to convince docs to use thal for cancer,...they
      cannot. They took the fastest ethical approach to get
      thal on the market.

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