I'm a Celgene long who's owned shares since the
fall of 1997. I invested on the theory that it was a
2-3 year proposition before developments would/could
develop fully enough for the market to reflect them in
the share price. That 2-3 year period still has
nearly 1-2 years to run, and in the meantime all
developments seem to have been positive (at least the ones
which we find out about. The share price, meanwhile,
has been a roller coaster, reflecting the general
stock market for the most part, but generally positive.
My head tells me to be patient and wait for
developments to take place as originally predicted [I try to
ignore my fears, as well as the obvious activities of
short-sellers which feed my fears]- so far so good.
started reading this board in late December when I bought
a computer, and I've gotten into the habit of
reading it daily. I've learned a lot, particularly from
people such as moranpicks who is analytical and takes
the long view in his occasional posts. On the other
hand, it's sometimes crazy-making to pay attention to a
lot of the people with short-term perspectives. On
the whole, I appreciate the efforts of the
I will continue to follow this board, and might
even get up the courage to reply from time to time. A
couple of specific throwaway observations: Ski3456's
contributions were really weird- he went from manic, and
supposedly privy to some good/positive information, to
disappeared. Maybe he did himself in when his father-in-law's
prediction about good things being about to happen to
Celgene stock on January (or was it February?) 4th never
happened. It would be nice to know that he's really still
alive and well, even if for some reason he's lost
interest in this board- I sometimes worry about people who
live in Princeton.
And enzyman- wow, is he on a
roll! I guess he's trying to fill in the void, now that
demand for Celgene shares has dried up completely
(hopefully temporarily) and that many posters seem to have
gone into hiding. The Louis Rukheyser idea is
interesting. It seems to born of the frustration over the fact
that the market ignores Celgene's positive
developments with Thalidomid and other things (fewer than
100,000 shares trading these days), while Entremed gets
great market attention even with seemingly-bad news.
John Jackson clearly isn't a self-promoter, which may
hurt in the short run, and thalidomide's tragic past
history isn't going to go away in people's minds any time
soon. all of this argues for patience, and faith that
in the end Celgene will prove itself to be a good,
maybe great, but clearly viable entity.
for a sleepy Sunday morning. I'm glad I found the
courage for this initial posting, and I hope I and the
other longs retain the courage to hold onto our shares
for the longer haul. The short sellers and day
traders have other agendas, obviously.
The real Value Line has a small cap service
called OVER THE COUNTER -- SPECIAL SITUATIONS. They
picked up Celgene in something like 1993. The library in
Columbia, Missouri carries this service, so as soon as
possible I will make the 90 mile journey to read the
latest report and let you all know what they're saying.
>> 1)How long phase II trails will
ANS: Anywhere from 6 months to 1 year. IMHO toward the
shorter side of the scale since this is such a well-known
>> 2)If phase II trails passes, how
long approximately phase III >> trails will
ANS: This is the final phase before application to
market the new drug. It should take from 6 months to 1
year, as well. Depending on the "efficacy" seen in the
drug. This final phase looks for how effective the drug
is at treating the "indication" (or sickness). It is
usually compared either with the "standard" treatment or
occasionally no treatment at all.
>> 3)Are there
going to be phase IV, V, VI trials, and etc.
There are no trials numbered 4,5, or 6. If the FDA
Advisory Panel finds deficiencies in the design or
execution of the Phase III trial, the Panel can ask (read
rule) that the PhaseIII trial can be done
>> 4)In your opinion, do you think EntreMed made a
bad business >> decision by giving up
ANS: IMHO, EntreMed made the right choice for their
business / technology model, which is focusing on large
(natural) protein anti-angiogenesis agents, like AS/ES.
Thalidomide's greatest future commercial potential is as an
anti a-TNF agent (for the gut) or a general
anti-inflamitory agent. It's anti-angiogenesis activity does not
have the higher theraputic index that some of the
newer agents have. It also has some toxic side effects
when taken in doses typical for anti-cancer
indications (>400 mg). Derivatives of Thalidomide
(SelCIDS) may avoid these side-effects and thus be more
palatable. But, <all my opinion>, Thalidomide may be
surpassed in application by CELGENEs SelCIDs and other
companies anti-angio agents (SUGEN, Genentec, Magannin,
In today's Reuters(Feb. 25, 1999),
"Feature-Nearly two dozen groups take cancer-starving route...
Thalidomide rights to which have been licensed to Celgene[by
EntreMed], is in phase II
1)How long phase II trails will take?
II trails passes, how long approximately phase III
trails will take?
3)Are there going to be phase
IV, V, VI trials, and etc.
4)In your opinion,
do you think EntreMed made a bad business decision
by giving up Thalidomide?
Thank you for your
answers in advance.
he and some other press have been plugging IMCL
because of some Phase II studies (look it up). If he is
astute enough to recommend IMCL so highly, why doesn't
he tout CELG? IMCL big product is an ANTIBODY to EGF
receptors (targeted at the cancer cell vs. the host like
Thal). It might be a good drug, but patients will
inevitably end up faced with resistant recurrances...that's
just the nature of cancer. But with McCamant and
others doing PR for them in the press, IMCL has a chance
of popping up in the short term, then once it does
and the promise fails to deliver for the long term,
CELG gets hurt because people will be more skeptical
of their good news. I have a small amount of IMCL
just in case, but I think their story might do more
harm than good both for CELG and for cancer
treatment...hope not. Having the better drug available faster
doesn't guarantee that people will figure it out. Its too
Jim McCamant of the bio-technology and medical
technology newsletters was on CNBC this morning. He
basically said that the smaller bio-techs were suffering
from lack of sponsorship. When the question was asked,
"why don't they do more roadshows?", he said those who
do them don't get anyone to show up.
Speaking of $250 million market cap companies, Jim did say
that once they start to move, they hardly stop at the
$500 million mark on their way to $1 Billion.
It was also mentioned that the large cap companies
would probably be buying some of these "badly
undervalued" small caps during the course of this year.
He said too that anti-inflammatories are the big
thing this year. Remicade for chron's and Enberel for
arthritis have helped raise awareness on treating
I know that I'm better than human and better than
feline. ASND, ADPT, LEAP, RENT, VION, NKE, etc, etc, etc.
But ENMD went from $16 to $30 in one day -- it just
didn't stay there.
And IPOs spurt up all the
time. All it takes is the elimination of IGNORANCE --
our worst enemy, since we have the goods, they (the
street) have the money, but they aren't knowledgeable
enough yet today to try to beat a path to our
But they will. And mark Mark Moran's words, he could
easily be right.
enzyman, annoyed about sinking
another quarter point but focussed on the horizon, where
I very clearly see the end of a rainbow!!!
on this one. CELG has to be the most exasperating
stock I've owned in the last year (and I've had a few
beauts). When, oh when, does the market wake up to the
reality of this company?? It's really going to have to
start moving to reach Mark Moran's estimate of
$23/share by March 31. I guess I'm frustrated - and we have
all been VERY patient. Any guesses as to when CELG
will actually start to move?
The back door approach was to get fast approval
as an "orphan drug". Research goes on. They aren't
trying to convince docs to use thal for cancer,...they
cannot. They took the fastest ethical approach to get
thal on the market.