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Ceragon Networks Ltd. Message Board

  • yarak1000 yarak1000 Apr 2, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    CRNT Target $ 1,50

    Huge Warning
    Company is dead for the next years

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    • I don't agree. This actually wasn't a bad disclosure although I won't say the share price won't go down. It is now down to around $2.80 in US Dollar terms in Israel so it is safe to say the price did go down. Maybe it will go down more, I don't know.

      So having said that, I will likely be buying after the conference call for the following reasons:

      1) They are refusing to ship to a customer who I assume is in Venezuela or Argentina pending adjustment of payment terms. They have been enduring significant losses due to devaluations and one of the things that has always scared me is that (a) they get hit with a big devaluation as happened in the 1st Q of both this year and last or (b) they just can't collect or struggle to collect as businesses are in great distress in these countries. Telling a customer you can't sell to them does cause declines in sales and probably even opens things up for competitors but they have to be willing to walk away if necessary from certain customers if the risks are too high.

      2) $73 million is 12% below guidance and 19% below last quarter. That isn't great but again, better to walk away from Venezuela and (maybe) better to walk away from Argentina. The bookings were likely around $100-$110 million and this means revenues are going to move up to levels that will generate profitability assuming margins are o.k. and they don't have a currency debacle in Venezuela and Argentina.

      3) $17 million in cash from Nero acquisition adjustments. That is far higher than I expected. That means they only paid around $30 million for Nero. Now Nero was burning cash like it was going out of style but they were reasonably big. Does that mean that Ceragon, Dragonwave, AViat and privately held SIAE Microettronica (private co) could only sell out for similar measures. If yes, this is disastrous for the weakest competitors.

      The one thing I really would have like to have seen was currency impact in the current quarter.

      • 1 Reply to cohsgrad
      • I do have some reasons to be hopeful on currency. There are going to be losses in Argentina but believe it or not, it is conceivable that Venezuela won't have any losses if their products fit in the right regulatory scheme. If they don't fall in the right regulatory scheme I would be surprised to see a $5 million loss. Suppose $5 million is more reasonable but it really might be zero.

        No getting away from losses in Argentina. I have no idea of what the cost will be there that I could justify as being anything other than a wild guess.

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