I don't see an industry that has peaked in growth. Growth has slowed but a 5% predicted growth rate over two years is growth and considering the % of boomers that use the product vs. the number of people that will be entering that age group, to say that there is no growth is a lie. This company does not focus on chasing the fad portion of this industry. and has placed itself significantly within the healthfood and organic areas of the retail sector. A niche that does very well and continues to experience growth.
I'm not a believer in pumping or marrying a stock.....but you seem very anxious to ignore the positives and pull down out of the skies possible negatives for NUTR.
I see no mention in your posts about $20 million cash flow.....no mention about very high return on assets and equity.
You talk about some special charge to earnings next year.....based on what?
Then you assert VSM is a no growth industry. Not so.....like most, but less than most, this industry has been at a plateau the past three years or so. But the long term trend in health awareness, both here and abroad, is up. This $9 billion yearly industry now could easily be--should be--a $20 or $40 or $100 billion dollar industry. Everybody already knows about automobiles, clothing, cold drinks, etc; most remain naive about most health supplements. There is massive potential for growth.
And even if there were not, this co by its consolidation of smaller cos can grow and has independently.
So I don't see any basis in fact for your so called information. Wishful thinking, I suggest. Wonder what your real agenda is?
I do not ever recall inferring that this was a "Buffet Stock". There is nothing to refute. You wish to attack a strategy that is the basics of a company plan and has been since its inception. It looks to me as if the company plan is working very well. You continue to hold your "ace" that the company seems be banking up good will and dumping it on the shareholders in the form of massive write-offs. That card does not play very well since almost all companies restated or wrote off good will last year with changes in rules. Being without that good will makes this a company that is more accurately valued. and it didn't seem to hurt the stock price. You continue to advance theories that are not based on any facts and compare it to something that it is not. You have not refuted any of the real fundamentals of the stock located in key statistics nor used any of them to make your case. I don't see where you have given me anything that I have not answered or is worth refuting.
Your claims continue to be baseless and nonsensical.
And we are nearing another buy point for me. go ahead and short it if you have any balls, I will be happy to have your help in taking it back up when you cover in panic.
I'm not whining, simply stating opinions which you have yet to refute.
These message boards are not just for pumpers/cheerleaders so if you don't like it just put me on ignore.
The company's strategy and goals are exactly what I'm attacking, so saying that they are performing according to plan provides very little comfort.
Those claiming that this is a Buffet stock should go back to the 3 fundamentals of a good investment:
1. Good business
2. Good management
3. Undervalued stock
NUTR undoubtly fails 1, fails 2 because it overpays for its acquisitions and fails 3 by virtue of not being worth more than EV/EBITDA of 5 (standard ratio for a smallcap in a no-growth business).
Go ahead and pump and talk about Bain being a temporary setback. Don't come crying next year when they do a special charge to earnings and institutions start dumping.
Maybe you should read the company strategy. They are doing exactly what they say their goal is with great success.
You obviously have a different strategy, so rather than continuing to whine here, go find a company that you like and be happy there.
Or just stay here and take up a nice short position. The longs will enjoy profiting from you later this year when you find yourself covering for a loss. Or if you are short now, plan on taking your 10 to 15% and making an exit soon.
Biggest question that comes to mind after reading proxy is:
Why are Gay & Levin departing the board?
Levin also recently liquidated his holdings, albeit under 5k shares.
Anyone know/any ideas out there?
Both are tied into Bain as part of the representation of Bain on the Board. Bain made a major acquisition this fall (the recreational divisions of Bombardier in an $850 million dollar partnership with the principal family of that company) and several other acquistions that I recall being mentioned about European companies. I have found no information on those. I view this exit as them feeling that they have completed their mission here and are now moving on to new endeavors. The key in my mind is to watch the remaining management partners and see what the company does in its second phase as independant. I see no evidence of exit or reduction by management. Watch to see where the exiting Bain representation of Bain lands next. Study Bain, their track record is very good.
For those who have been in this stock for the last 3 years, it has been great and the trend line is still very positive. The goal as described is to make growth through acquisition and consolidation of distressed or undervalued companies. To that end, we are seeing a very well executed and carefully followed game plan.
I have been in this stock for almost three years with one exit and re-entry that was very profitable this past Winter and Spring.
I think that buying during Bain distributions is a great opportunity, though it could go a little lower during this activity. I see nice gains coming as the distribution ends and one should pay more attention to a forward looking PE than a trailing PE here right now.
There are two major players in the VMS industry that are doing things right in my opinion and worth owning. NTY and NUTR, they are both playing the role of shark and doing well at it and neither is really swimming in the same waters as the other. When they begin swimming in the same waters, a decision will have to be made as to which is the bigger shark.
Interesting - thanks for posting that...
I'm new here and have no position; can anyone explain why so many people from Utah/BYU are affiliated with this company?
How about the "tight" relationship with Bain - is there any perceived conflict of interest or is this nothing to worry about?
Good reading to answer many of your questions would come from previous posts on the board over the last two years. All of your questions would be answered much better than I can in a short post. Bain and partners were significant in founding this company. They play a significant role in creating companies or acquiring distressed companies for turn around. This company was a creation. Their strategy is to bring them up to speed and make an exit with a profit. up until this summer, they held a majority interest in the company. They have been making an exit for the past 4 months by selling and distributing their shares to their partners. In my opinion, this has no adverse affect on the stock other than a short term buying opportunity presented by the massive selling. If you will notice, during these distribution phases, the stock has only shown a mild retreat and held a support area through the entire sale. I would guess that there is a prearranged buyer for much of the selling. The distribution will in fact make the stock more attractive to institutions by removing a majority interest and making more stock available for trade.
The new basher shorts that have appeared are not regular posters and can be expected when a large volume sell-off appears. In this case, their failure to do their own due diligence will only help us when they finally figure out that from here, they will only get pennies and if lucky, another dollar before this rockets back up. The big volume will dry up as suddenly as it came when they want to cover and they will find holders unwlling to sell any quantities until we find a level where we started the distribution.
To see who is regular here, just look back a few months.