I come up with around $.07/well per share of long term value. I arrive at that by taking a depleted production value of around 45 bbl/d multiplied by 365 days/year multiplied by a netback price of around $60/bbl and then assign a 5x multiple on it, which really means you are paying around $110,000 per flowing bbl of production. I also assume 68 million shares outstanding. You can compare this metric to many other purchases including the recent PXP deal, lots of LINE's permian deals etc etc. The $110,000 per flowing bbl is a fair price, especially given the ability to hedge out 3+ years and with oil at $80+ and I valued it on a netback price of $60.
Also remember that I did not assign any value to the upfront production (i.e. the oil they produced in Yr 1 when they get close to a full payback). In theory, they can drill a well and recover close to 100% of their money back by the end of the year, then turn around and drill another with those proceeds. The tail end production is low but long lived and as they drill more and more wells, it keep growing.
I'll need to do some more analysis on the Marcellus, but suspect the long term value there is around $.05/well/share due to the slightly lower economics.
So, given that they plan to drill around 12 wells in both the EFS and the Marcellus, they could, potentially add around $1.44/share in value.
Then add in the Bakken, the pipeline and any other work they do (conventional production in Ohio and Kentucky etc). On a $4.14 share price, that is around a 35% increase in value....