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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

  • wise4us wise4us Jul 28, 2009 4:01 PM Flag

    Shorts Worried/Clwr approaching double figures

    Another good move for Clearwire today. Hopefully we punch through $9 in a few days and then move into the low teens. Sanddollar and group keep mentioning capital issues and Clearwire's cash burn rate. But as Clwr stock value increases, a lot of financial issues will fall by the wayside.

    Look for Time Warner to offer a Clearwire/Wimax bundle package, similar to what Comcast offers now in Portland, in the next few days.

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    • The spectrum is worth only what buyers will pay for it and whose going to buy spectrum that's locked into the same unproven data-centric WiMAX business for another 2.5 years?

      The only people with money that want a WiMAX business are already CLWR investors.

      Throwing out the "spectrum card" is just too hilarious.

    • Right... and at a $5B market cap, this thing is not even worth what the spectrum assets by themselves are worth, even in this 0% growth recessionary environment.

      I think a further 30-40% dilution (1.5-2B in capital) is priced in.

      As it gets larger, the stock will come under pressure... as cash flow/revenue is generated from existing rollouts in 3Q and 4Q the stock will rise...

    • Dilution is not a psychological phenomenon nor is it "priced in". Dilution is a mathematical certainty that necessarily occurs when the company issues more shares to sell.

    • Agreed. Build it and they will come.

    • Fundamentally disagree with that. Dilution through a capital raise is priced in to this stock at $7.

      The key parameters here are opening the major new cities by EOY 2009 (Chicago, Dallas, Philly primarily), getting Sprint, Comcast, Time Warner, et al to do some major advertising, and then proving it with 4Q subscriber and revenue numbers.

      Current 4Q revenue estimates are $91M. I think CLWR needs to finally start besting its metrics here by hitting $100M...

    • Anyone that gets in between now and the beginning of the year should expect to see the value of their investment cut by at least 33% when dilution occurs from the capital raise.

      Plus, CLWR's Q3 and Q4 reports are likely to be far worse than Q2 on losses. CLWR stated their CPGCA was rising and the number of new subscribers will be minimal relative to spending in the second half.

      Coupled with forthcoming dilution, there's almost no sound business reason to make a bet on CLWR today.

    • Selling covered calls is the equivalent of being out of the position for a limited period of time. The use of the word "short" may have been misleading by me, it's a decaying short bet but offset by the cover...

      CLWR needs a more active options market (I think it will get there in a year or so)... the $7.5 - $10 gap provides too wide a gulf.

    • Shorts have mostly been 'worried' about when to take their profits. If you were a short you probably deserve congratulations. This is an investment, not a religion or confirmation in technology, spectrum or anything else. Stocks go up and down based on fundamentals, short term performance, manipulation of acquisitions or other stuff that investors often misinterpret.

      CLWR has proven to have been a great short up until it hit a pitiful level of around 2.7. Most people who shorted it should have been able to make a profit unless they were as equally oblivious as many longs.

      The history of the stock is painted in the charts. There is nothing at all sacred about being a 'long'. If long, more power to you. Have you made money? If short, more power to you. Did you start to cover around 2.7? If the answer is no, then you, as an investor and not some sort of religious nut have not championed over other buyers and sellers to maximum benefit.

      Stocks are blips on the screen. You own almost nothing. You make your bets and deal with the consequences. Always invest only as much as you care to risk. Diversify. Take precautions... if the stock heads down ask why and maybe bail and sit on the sidelines. And use stops or options to protect or lower your cost basis.

      Shorts were the winners, longs only reacently have something to gloat about.

      The "na, na, na shorts suck" type posts are mostly lies and miss the point about investing.

      Posting that shorts may consider covering can make sense. Or "this looks like a good time to take profits or short" can also make sense. Be objective, not some sort of religious nut about investing. You might just as well say, "Shorts are saints, longs are sinners!"