I'm gonna go out on a limb here and make a few predictions about CLWR share price and events in 2010.
Jan 4th, 2010 - CLWR goes over $7
Jan 6th, 2010 - Sprint, LG & Microsoft introduce America's first wimax-compatible phone. Sprint and MS announce an ongoing collaboration between the two companies to develop additional Wimax devices running Win Mobile platform (i.e. Zune HD)
Jan 7th, 2010 - Stock goes over $8
Jan 7th - 10th - Additional Wimax-compatible devices are announced introduced at CES.
Jan 26th, 2010 - Apple introduces the iSlate tablet with Wimax support.
Jan 27th, 2010 - Stock goes over $10, reaches 52-week high
Jan - March, 2010 - Clear service officially starts in 10 additional markets, mostly in Northeast (including, DC area and NYC)
Feb, 2010 - Q4 results show better than expected subscription numbers, but debt skyrockets...shares drop 8-10%.
March, 2010 - Sprint introduces LS680 wimax-compatible phone running Android.
Remainder of 2010:
Wimax moves from the shadows into the spotlight. Analysts give Clearwire a second look after new gadgets are introduced and Q4 numbers are announced.
Q1 numbers will also show accelerating subscription growth but explosive growth will start in Q2 after NYC and DC markets are conquered. Comcast and Time-warner will push further with their branded-4g marketing.
April, 2010 - June - Stock will reach an all-time high of $18/share - Market cap hovers around 19 billion.
August, 2010 - Clear introduces own-branded Wimax phone to hit market a couple of months later. It's now servicing 60+ markets.
August-Sept - Q2 numbers are announced showing high expenditures but tremendous subscription growth. Stock goes over $20
Nov - Wimax announces the completion of its 80 market rollout ahead of schedule. Shifts focus to fine-tune and improve existing markets with a higher focus on marketing to B2B clients.
Nov - Q3 numbers continue to impress and expenditures show sign of flat-lining.
Aside from all these, I think we may see a few surprises this year (i.e. T-mobile partners with Sprint to offer 4g services) but who knows.
These are my predictions, let the bashing begin.
Incumbents with existing customers and revenue don't need to push the bleeding edge of technology, they only need to match anything new that becomes popular.
VZ has said the first generation of LTE will be a data-centric service like CLWR, except at 700MHz. As a data-centric service there will be little cannibalization of their voice revenue. In fact, these are complimentary.
Look at the history of established companies like IBM, Microsoft or Intel that have enormous momentum. They often do not pioneer every technology breakthrough but they are the one's that bring the finished technology to the masses and capture the lion's share of profit.
All the scuttlebutt about the LS680... Android is starting to impact the device supply dynamic and many more devices will come out including many new types of devices. The individual devices are almost rudimentary compared to the interlacing of OS environments that Google is unfolding.
The platform and the aps that develop across platforms are transformational.. the devices are many facets of the diamond.
In terms of normal time line for ebbs and flows in market share, LTE is practically here whether it takes 12 or 36 months before the 'big roll out'.
To being with, the differences in business models for VZ, T-M, T and that if Clearwire means that Clearwire enters the converging streams within the fastest growth segments of mobile and IT (ICT) and builds upon new business momentum. While CW takes some market share away from incumbent operators, this is spread out across DSL & cable wireline and wireless broadband mobile industries. The sum is greater than the number of parts as new devices and applications come into play. Even when Clearwire carves out a portion of subscribers from competing mobile operators, this occurs as the segment wireless is expanding into and, therefore, CW is not entirely taking away existing business.
LTE will enter the picture with some very admirable characteristics:
1) Great spectrum for reach and penetration
2) Fat wallets
3) Determination not to loose market share
But this has numerous difficulties including market cannibalization. The incumbents have a dilemma: they have to drive the hamster cage or they fall behind the competition. As they drive to higher bandwidth devices and services, they further tax their broadband capacity. This is part of the analysis of the vice dilemma operators are exposed to: pinched between rising deployment and operations costs, and lower per unit revenues.
Nice discussion- what about the value of the spectrum and what about the value and revenue as a backhaul solution- even for LTE as these new devices continue to gobble up bandwidth?
Many factors will play. Get the thing built.
Just for general info, I just signed a ground lease with Clearwire in Orlando.
Like I originally said:
It's just an extension of the projection made in the last conference call. Not saying that it is valid. Just a way to look at some numbers.
As for the partners, have you ever heard the CEO of Sprint Dan Hesse speak about WiMax. WiMax is a big deal for Sprint in terms of retaining and attracting customers. That is their ROI.
Sprint has roughly 100 times the number of customers Clearwire has. IIRC, he stated that WiMax has not achieved the traction yet to move the needle at Sprint, but he expects it to move the needle in the future. When it moves the needle at Sprint, it will spin the needle at Clearwire in terms of subscriber growth IMO.
Clearwire is a speculative play. It appears they have the resources to play out the hand they hold.
Investors wrote off their initial investment but the main thing they got out of the deal, is wholesale access to wimax's network. Their ROI will be the number of clients they acquire by expanding their service offering through a wireless product.....and increase in share value from the second investment round.