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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

  • indano indano Oct 8, 2011 12:03 AM Flag

    Goldman Sachs says TD-LTE $20B 2012

    GS Report
    TD-LTE: gearing up to cover 2.7bn people in Asia by 2013
    TD-LTE adoption is gaining momentum among global carriers
    In our view, TD-LTE is becoming the global solution for unpaired spectrum
    due to its 3G interoperability, large data capacity, and leverage of the FDD LTE
    ecosystem. Verizon’s successful launch of FDD-LTE in the US should
    further accelerate the conversion of WiMAX to TD-LTE. In June, two more
    carriers have joined the TD-LTE camp, which now totals 12 carriers. China
    Mobile, Bharti, and Softbank, three major carriers covering 39% of the
    global population,

    In June, two more
    carriers have joined the TD-LTE camp, which now totals 12 carriers. China
    Mobile, Bharti, and Softbank, three major carriers covering 39% of the
    global population,

    In June, two more
    carriers have joined the TD-LTE camp, which now totals 12 carriers. China
    Mobile, Bharti, and Softbank, three major carriers covering 39% of the
    global population,

    look on track to roll out some TD-LTE services in late
    2012 or early 2013, and the significant potential of these markets should
    attract increasing R&D investment into TD-TLE technology, in our view.
    Qualcomm and STE lead in multi-mode LTE/3G semiconductors
    Unlike TD-SCDMA, TD-LTE has broad support from various leading global
    technology companies and should enjoy a smoother ride, in our view.
    Qualcomm’s newly launched MSM8960 is the first mobile processor with
    an integrated modem supporting TD-LTE/FDD-LTE/EVDO/WCDMA, and
    should significantly simplify the multi-mode LTE/3G handset design. STEricsson’s
    M7400 is a multi-mode modem that supports TD-LTE/FDDLTE/
    HDPA+/TD-SCDMA. Our channel checks indicate MSM8960 and M7400
    supporting TD-LTE should become commercially available in early or mid-
    2012. Also, we note more than 10 other semiconductor firms have invested
    in TD-LTE, a much strong line-up than for TD-SCDMA. We expect ZTE and
    Huawei to launch multi-mode TD-LTE smartphones by the end of 2012.
    Potential winners/losers from a smooth TD-LTE transition by 2013
    We view TD-LTE as a disruptive technology similar to FDD-LTE, and that if
    it gained sufficient critical mass with successful commercial launch on a
    quality smartphone, we think China Mobile could recover its market share
    of high-ARPU users

    we think China Mobile could recover its market share
    of high-ARPU users

    we think China Mobile could recover its market share
    of high-ARPU users

    at the expense of China Unicom and China Telecom
    from 2013. This scenario would be especially negative to China Unicom’s
    long-term story of strong operating leverage after reaching 100mn 3G sub
    in 2014-2015. In India, Bharti Airtel would likely be the main beneficiary of
    TD-LTE due to its strong existing subs base. In Japan, Softbank is the only
    carrier adopting TD-LTE. We estimate TD-LTE capex to reach US$15-$20bn
    and 40mn terminals over 2012-2014 with Qualcomm and ST-Ericsson
    benefitting as leading multi-mode LTE/3G semiconductor suppliers today.
    ZTE should enjoy higher market share in TD-LTE than in 3G, in our view.

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