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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

  • indano indano Nov 28, 2011 8:31 AM Flag

    Samsung and Motorola know what works

    Dual-mode (WiMAX & LTE) wins the race.
    With 802.16m, CLWR will be the FIRST to offer TRUE IMT 4G!
    With 802.16m, CLWR will be the FIRST to offer TRUE IMT 4G!

    "On the other hand, 802.16m WiMAX will meet IMT Advanced standards, making it the first 4G solution to come to market, expected to be in 2012."

    ...and 47% cell coverage increase!!!

    The 800-pound gorilla in any discussion about 4G mobile standards is the de facto competition between WiMAX and LTE (Long Term Evolution.)
    Virtually every wireless operator is concerned about a "tech war" in which one technology eventually wins in the race to 4G. Everyone wonders which
    one will it be. The answer, of course, isn’t so cut and dried. "The real answer," says Brda, "is two technologies coexisting side-by-side and serving the different needs of operators around the world."

    It’s important to remember that WiMAX and LTE are not 4G. They do not meet the IMT-Advanced standards that define minimum 4G performance. On
    the other hand, 802.16m WiMAX will meet IMT Advanced standards, making it the first 4G solution to come to market, expected to be in 2012. (LTE
    Advanced, the 4G incarnation of LTE, isn’t projected to be available until 2013 or 2014.) This disparity in time-to-market essentially makes an operator’s decision less a technology choice and more a business decision.

    http://www.motorola.com/web/Business/Product%20Lines/Motowi4/wi4%20WiMAX/document/WiMAX2_The_Streamlined_Path_to_4G_WhitePaper.pdf

    Current and new WiMAX networks can map a step-by-step path to 802.16m that will increase performance significantly. By 2011, even before WiMAX 2 is fully available, operators will be able to take advantage of a 10-to-20 percent increase in spectrum efficiency. Ultimately, when 802.16m is fully available, spectrum efficiency will increase by 50 percent, leading to significant gains in capacity and a 200 to 300 percent increase in performance. WiMAX operators can expect to see peak throughputs beyond 100 Mbps - up to a hundred times faster than 3G - to provide exceptional performance for bandwidth-hungry mobile data applications. In addition, the WiMAX 2 standard can process requests in a few milliseconds, enabling reduced latency and an advanced scheduler technology for optimized prioritization of data services.

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    • I would agree as CLWR has excess spectrum. But the TM price includes spectrum, so to just add in value of CLWR spectrum w/o the offsetting adjustment would be just fooling yourself. In addition, I did not make a negative adj. for the premium paid for TM as it was not necessary to make the point.

      In addition, CLWR has so much excess spectrum, that the last Mhz/pop is much less valuable than the first Mhz/pop, depending on how long b4 a potential buyer would need it.

      This is all just academic at this point, as the most realistic path to realization of spectrum value is through BR. In getting there, the share price probably takes a hit. At least then, we can take a much harder look at true spectrum value and if anything will be left for shareholders.

    • I would say you have to include the spectrum in any deal as that was seen as the real reason T wanted T-mob. The retail customers are just a bonus with CLWR.

      T did tie Hesse's hands with the M&A. So, T won that battle as Hesse fell into their trap by focusing on derailing the merger rather than finding ways to out compete T.

      IMO, S + CLWR is the deal to be had. If S wants to be anything other than a sinking #3 it has to challenge the giants with a faster higher quality network.

      Individual entertainment choices rather than cable's this channel pack or that channel pack is the future for the entertainment industry. Consumers paying only for what they want, when they want it.

      CLWR's network seems to be ideally placed in urban areas to deliver the network format, TD-LTE, in support of those individual entertainment choices via the internet, to the most people, for the least cost.

    • On your suggested valuation of CLWR per subscriber, you have oversimplified a little too much.

      ATT is obviously paying both a synergy/last merger/duopoly premium for TM. Prior to the merger announcement, most had valued TM much lower than the ATT price. Still, ATT had to include a huge BU fee in the deal due to the risks. Even w/all that, lets use the $1,450/sub number you propose.

      Unfortunately, most of these subs are shared w/S. CLWR has had very little success in recruiting its own retail subs, or whsl through other channels. The ARPU for CLWR for the wholesale subs are approx $6 compared to closer to $50 for TM. That is a pretty big diff. to overlook.

      So using $1,450 for 1.3m retail and $174 (12% of $1450) for 8.7m wholesale, you get an EV of $3.4B which is far below the outstanding debt load.

    • That is a separate issue.

      The breakup of the deal or spin out of a more substantial part of AT&T's spectrum and subscribers throws a different wild card into the picture that can vary from a positive to a negative.

    • You're right.

    • I'm expecting some clarity regarding your comments to begin showing up now that it appears the T&T-Mob M&A is kaput. IMHO, proposed deals that CLWR has eluded to, have been on hold waiting for LS2 news and T's M&A news. Without T-Mob's spectrum T's networks will be choking on iPhone congestion. In a strange twist of fate, T could easily become a CLWR customer as well as all the other companies continually mentioned on this board.

      My bet is that CLWR will make it because the alternative is more painful for S.

      At these prices for both S and CLWR the customer base alone is a great bargain for a suitor. Recall, T was paying DT about $1450 per customer... if a person wanted to view the deal using that metric vice spectrum.

    • How does it fit? Does WiMAX+LTE mean other operators will provide those devices.. who? Do you think Clearwire will strike a new agreement with an operator to use them?

      What might be possible is that once Clearwire gets funding and has signed partners that they could do roaming agreements onto other operator's networks for the WiMAX+LTE equipped subscribers to roam. However, that does not change the fact that they need to get the financing and do the deployments.

      What should have been said about WiMAX+LTE chips and devices is that these are nearing market availability which will give Clearwire greater ability to migrate subscribers to LTE. Sprint will likely use them for that... and so long as Clearwire gets funded, they can as well. That equates this to an expected good move but due to the circumstances not able to significantly change Clearwire's overall situation.

      With or without this, Clearwire is threatening to default on interest payments in order to force Sprint's hand because they have no funding other partners.

      The WiMAX+LTE is not something Clearwire has announced as a major way to grow subscribers or revenue. If they were to announce roaming deals or partnerships that would use the devices, then it would fare better. As such, its nothing bankable.

    • And that's a fact Jack!