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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

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  • teamrep teamrep Aug 16, 2012 11:13 AM Flag

    Ergen says Dish will likely partner

    Many assumptions and no links or corroborating information:

    Ergen has said that DISH needs to partner with a mobile operator. What he has said about Clearwire is that DISH has talked with the company and has considered wholesale access. Where is your new information that informs the board that the thinking has changed or how could Clearwire fulfill the role of a mobile operator, which, btw, they are not.

    Hyping the stock might nab a few people to buy the stock.. which might move it on a given day by a few pennies for a short while until its absorbed in the broader flux of trading... iow.. meaningless.

    DISH is most likely to partner with a mobile operator for deployments because that would give them more expertise in devices and a way to leverage into the mobile market. The situation is shifting as Clearwire becomes active in 'World Phone' device developments. However, Clearwire has no mobile subscribers of their own.. those are 'owned' by Sprint under their 3G+WiMAX sub contracts. Clearwire is a cash impoverished operator that would need a large cash infusion to take on a partnership. While DISH could invest in CW, they need their capital if they are to mount an offensive to build out a nationwide LTE network, sapwn competitive devices, and market the new service against already entrenched market. The US market is saturated with mobile phones and most of the way to being saturated with SmartPhones and pads/Phablets. Just as it has been for Clearwire, carving out mobile BB marketshare will be an uphill battle for DISH or DTV beyond a small percentage of conversions of their existing satellite subscriber base that might easily be lured away with packaged deals. Clearlywired offers no similar subsidizer base - the 1.3 million is smaller than LEAP, metroPCS and leading MVNOs.. there aint no laundry in that basket outside of a few underwear with holes in it.

    Hype, hype, hype.. repeat the hype enough times and some people will come to believe it. Clearwire is not a mobile operator. They are confined by their finances, lack of technological prowess to innovate internally, and the lure of the low hanging fruit of metro hot zone overlay for other operators to play a significant direct role in filling DISH or DTV's needs. 'Anything is possible' but investors have to work with what is at least not so wild of fantasy that it does not happen 9 out of ten times. It could happen, however, until Ergen/DISH starts making statements that indicate a change from his previous stance that they need a mobile partner with Clearwire being a possible metro zone gap filler, its best to place odds on that not on a narrow odds hype without any explanation of how that would deliver desired results. DISH does not have to partner with Clearwire to use their network.. that can happen and hopefully will happen.. another wholesale customer that can help the company financially, but not for free.

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    • TR, I've thought all along that Dish would probably partner with Sprint "with Clearwire being a possible metro zone gap filler". But with Sprint already having their hands full, and Dish perhaps wanting to do it their own way, it has occured to me that "another option would be using Clearwire's network in metro areas and using their expertise to help Dish build out a network for coverage elsewhere." Thru the use of satellite it would give them pretty good coverage and capacity if a phone could seemlessly switch between the two. Do you see that as reasonable possibility?

      • 2 Replies to relevance2code
      • The fact is Dish owns two blocks of MSS spectrum S-band 2000-2020 and 2180-2200. The 2000-2020 is an unpaired spectrum that has been categorized for strictly TDD LTE usage under the 3GPP band 34. Dish is asking FCC to repurpose 2180-2200 for single mode terrestrial for TDD LTE usage, so Dish will have its 40 MHz of TDD LTE spectrum.

        Dish intends to go ahead with its TDD-LTE network but seemingly looking for a partner or acquiring a small carrier that already has an existing operation. It is unlikely that Dish will team up with anyone else other than Clearwire since Clearwire has the only expertise in building of TDD-LTE network in the entire U.S. More importantly, only T-Mobile and Clearwire currently have the "AWS/2.6 GHz antennas" in place that Dish Networks could utilize.

        Dish has allocated $5.6B for its LTE network and it is very unlikely that Dish will be merging with Sprint since Dish (Ergen) as venture2fun puts it: [He is the type of individual who does not like to play second fiddle. He doesn't want to be a controlled entity like CLWR is. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that he or any of the enterprises that he controls will enter into any venture where he is subjugated.], and I tend to agree with that. Besides, Sprint and Dish are not in the same type of business. Dish’s core business is in providing entertainment while Sprint is a carrier network just like Verizon and AT&T, and they are not interested video-packaging business.

        Others also believe Dish may be partnering or outright acquiring Clearwire:

        [“Despite the lack of official confirmation, investors appeared optimistic about Dish Network's potential investment in Clearwire. Speculation over the cash influx sent Clearwire's stock soaring 18.5 percent by the end of trading Wednesday. Clearwire holds a considerable 160 MHz of spectrum in the 2.6 GHz band in the country's top 100 markets and could be a valuable partner to Dish Network as it prepares to embark on the construction of an LTE network.”]

        http://www.cedmagazine.com/news/2012/08/dish-mum-on-clearwire-investment-rumors

        As also noted by this article,

        http://www.dailywireless.org/2011/08/23/dish-applies-for-terrestrial-td-lte/ “Dish Applies For Terrestrial TD-LTE”.

        “The plan is to provide Americans with data access using TD-LTE, over the frequencies which are supposed to be reserved for satellite communications, and Dish would like the FCC's permission to ship kit that has no capability to talk to the satellites at all, just as LightSquared intends to do.”]

        http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/24/dish_networks/

        Given all these facts, I am inclined to think that Dish intends to team up with Clearwire. Further, it is widely believed that Dish has been accumulating Clearwire's debt behind the scene for some time.

      • I've posted evolving thinking about this previously: DISH might expand upon use of Clearwire's current plans for deployments so that it includes more coverage. Reasons why that is becoming more feasible are 1) Growing industry trend and specific alignment of Clearwire and Sprint to use outside firms for management of deployments and operation of the network. Ericsson is partnered with both CW and S. DISH could similarly or more so benefit from a similar managed network approach and that can now be in common with S & CW. 2) As the device supply situation opens up for TD-LTE, the specific support of Sprint or other mobile operator becomes less important. However, it does not change the marketshare situation quickly.. that will take years if its accomplished. 3) The development of microcell HetNet and LTE+3G multiple carrier approach to building networks that is now gearing up momentum could be used between DISH, S and Clearwire to include more use of Clearwire's spectrum. One way that could occur is for DISH and their retail and installation operations to be used to install small cells into the DISH customer base. One potentially big advantage that DISH and DTV have over mobile and, to some extent, cable competitors is that customers are accustomed to having a roof-top or side wall antenna assembly installed. That sets up the mode for adoption by customers as being "upgrade to the DISH 4G LTE-Advanced Antenna Receiver by calling 1-800-4GA-DISH today and receive up to 100Mbps high speed internet access free for three months!". That similarly could include mobile service as one of the optional packages. The advantage to Clearwire and DISH is that while indoor modems may work in many situations, the customer base allows use of small cells as part of a HetNet deployment that extends coverage while tending to lock in the DISH customer base and offering new opportunities to grow the service. The use of microcells in this type of situation have already been used by other operators around the world with the capabilities for greater use being extended in LTE-Advanced including the TD-LTE version. There are innovations that become more feasible in TD-LTE but we aren't even talking about that... just the simple base station to higher gain antenna/MIMO array and then that providing a stronger Direct-LTE (as Qualcomm calls it) signal to mobile and in-building users plus Wi-Fi coverage to the subscriber.

    • Just as many have overlooked the value of unlimited plans being offered by Sprint in capturing new customers from the Big 2, I think you may be making the same mistake when you say " Just as it has been for Clearwire, carving out mobile BB marketshare will be an uphill battle for DISH or DTV beyond a small percentage of conversions of their existing satellite subscriber base that might easily be lured away with packaged deals"

      I think many would like to have one billing point for all family connections, particularly where I can access entertainment programs a la carte and have unlimited tele/data service. The efficiency of such an offering would cause me to change existing services and if I were already a DISH customer, it would be a no brainer. I would guess more than a few of DISHs’ millions of customers would be willing to do the same, and that’s more than a small percentage they would/could carve out. I don’t suggest this would be easy, simply that it's a competitive offering which is more than what is offered by anyone else and can change the competitive landscape.

    • I think you're right here. Clearwire can't really satisfy the need for coverage in rural areas. At the same time I don't think Dish would parter with Verizon or ATT, so as far as mobile operators are concerned there aren't many other viable options. Mainly I would think either T-Mobile, PCS, or Sprint. If they were to partner with Sprint, Clearwire would benefit.

      Another option would be using Clearwire's network in metro areas and using their expertise to help Dish build out a network for coverage elsewhere.

      Nobody really knows what Dish is doing other than they want in the mobile business. There aren't many ways this can go poorly for Clearwire, but there are plenty of good results that could happen.

    • whoa - did i miss something?

      i dozed off after "Many assumptions"

      hehe (hoho)

 

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