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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

  • skikewee skikewee Oct 22, 2012 10:23 AM Flag

    Mr. Son

    I am behind Mr. Son 100% in his future views on technology and the uses of spectrum as far as the range owned by Clearwire. There is no doubt in my mind that he wants the price of Clearwire to go much higher, as this will make the value of Sprint ( major holder of Clearwire 50.8% ) and Sprint rise, thus giving more value to his investment and bottom line! I am jsut wondering why a US Corporation didn;t move in this area and see the future and back it 100% like Mr. Son???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Even the big telcos might have misjudged the explosive growth of data. Hi speed WIRELESS everything is the future and its more than just owning the latest fancy smartphone.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jotandee
      • According to my research based upon nonlinear extrapolative trends (10th degree polynomial time series)..

        Clear's spectrum will be $6T, 50 years from now. Broadly based on my quantitative analysis and qualitative factors, the reasons are as follows:

        1. Almost total migration to mobile devices (including TV) by then.

        2. TDD-LTE 2.6 GHz only spectrum capable of supporting such capacity with functional speeds at these load levels.

        3. Multiple devices / connections per sub.

        4. Population growth.

        5. Turnover factor (capacity utilization per user in terms of data usage) of at least 10x.

        6. Further proliferation of smaller devices like the ipad minis.

        7. International roaming.

        A NLR (nonlinear regression analysis) was also done using different relevant independent variables with Spectrum Value as the dependent variable for 10 years of historical data. I plan to publish a whitepaper on this in the near future.

        The Class B value of $13.98 does not even come close to what the Class A share value should be. Maybe for today's holder of Class A shares $13.98 or higher is a start (in the event of a total buyout) but not so in the distant future.

        Son knows what he is doing to improve the quality of service, and challenge the duoply of T & VZ.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • SB can use Clear's paired spectrum for fd-lte and unpaired spectrum for td-lte. Voice and data galore at high speeds and affordable !

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • What investors know is that:

      Clearwire is a financial basket case on their own.. Wall Street and many serious investors have a difficult time seeing past that because it looks so troubling. Its time to square that.. I mean just admit how bad the financial situation had become and look for what can come about that can change that.

      Son/SoftBank is more a 'integrated services business philosophy' than a traditional 'mobile operator business model'. Their approach to business has been to focus on the user above all else but also to make very bold moves in acquisitions and moving outside of the normal space of mobile operators to include Internet services, bring in and develop SmartPhones and tailor the software, services, and marketing to the individual and groups of users. Think about that: Isn't that along the same ilk as what Apple/Steve Jobs are famous for? Not limiting devices to just building the physical candy-bar blob of plastic and circuitry to be 5% different/more advanced/cutesier appearance than your competitors but to make it work better, easier and more of what the user can... er use. That philosophy of business asks more questions about what and how content and applications can be delivered. Apple has never built wireless networks outside of the puny ones on their business campuses and some experiments such as participation in the Bay area metro-Fi proejcts. However, as BB capacity grew they have pushed the envelop... in fact forced operators to build in higher capacity and more quickly move on to LTE or get crushed... by the demand the USERs created because the devices led to larger BB appetites. Apple did not have to tell users "Please, oh please use more data so we can gain control over the market!" .. but they did that by delivering what users could use... content and applications stores... leading edge high resolution HD screens, higher resolution cameras (no longer the leader but they set the direction). More importantly, they knit all of that together to make it easy while Motorola, Samsung, Nokia had many of the 'right pieces' that were very awkward if not nearly impossible to use.

      To some extent, Softbank and Apple find themselves in a similar stage of affairs: The competition that their more aggressive embrace of technology and synergistic use once set them 3-5 years out ahead of the pack has been closed and, in specific features sometimes exceeded. Softbank and Apple gained marketshare because they were relevant to the stage of technology and deployments and could come out with unique products consumers fell in love with. Both are finding the room for continued growth to not be as open. That is a major reason why Son/Softbank is looking outside of Japan.. a process that Son started years ago with investment in early Internet portals and services.

      Does Son want to see Clearwire's stock price shoot up? Since SB now owns part of CLWR through their acq of Sprint, 'sure, ya betcha'. However, what he more wants is to conquer the new markets for higher bandwidth and the unique devices and services that can be used on top of them.

      Blah, blah:

      What investors know is A) Clearwire has not been 'taken out'.. little idiots can still buy CLWR stock. B) The 2.6GHz is unique in its breath of raw bandwidth.. and uniqueness, whether that is coverage, marketshare, or bandwidth is what is used as the basis to drive markets. However, you cannot be brain-dead in the use of technology and still expect things to fall into your lap. Son isn't brain dead.

      • 3 Replies to teamrep
      • Yes, Clearwire is a basket case on their own, but what many people don;t know is that there is only a small amount of spectrum and there is no where else to get more, not like it;s a mineral that can be mined, only thing they can do is a thing called frequency refarming, thus making several out of one, and then properly broadcast and filter that and make sure it doesn't bleed over into the other frequencies next to it, this is the future and Softbank will now have more than anyone else to bring futuristic devices into our lives! This will definately have a big infuence on cable and dish, this will bring all of our wireless services to us including television, etc.! Good luck all!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I agree to most of what you said, and what about the 2.5 range also??? This is like buying a gold mine from a company that can't mine it right and making yourself rich! I know why Mr. Son bought it, obvious to anyone with an analytical mind!

      • CLWRs spectrum assets are reproducible if you include unlicensed bands (wifi). The question is will any of the major carriers look this way as it would mean a significant change to the business strategy they have operated under since inception.

        ATT has covered its bets in this area, but continues to focus primarily on licensed bands. Sprint may now be in a position to be a nimble challenger (Japanese carriers have been leaders in integrating wifi due to their geography), but S probably needs a little more time to get their macro system in order. My bet is that if it happens, it will be VZ that makes the first move. If they do, it will be a fast rollout to keep them ahead of others in the network space, but eventually, the leader will be in who can deliver the best integrated services, not just coverage and capacity.

        The other bet is that Mr. Son truly shares Apple's vision and roadmap to how we get to the future. If true, his leadership may be worth even more than his $.

        Sentiment: Buy


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