Soon we will get an announcement of Dish/Sprint partnership with a combined offer for Clearwire of $4.47/share
If Dish remains silent and does not throw a public fit over Clearwire using the Sprint money then this means there is a deal between the two. I would expect ~$1.50/share from Dish on top of the $2.97 offer from Sprint for a combined offer of ~$4.47. For $1.50 Dish will be able to pick up some spectrum from Clearwire and form a partnership with Sprint.
Why would Ergen and Stanton AGREE to draw down $80 million only to pay a $97 penalty on top of the payback? That makes no sense. It's hard for me to believe that CLWR and DISH are working collaboratively here... it's the other way around.
They will continue to shake the trees until they get all the nervous investors holding this stock out. That was the exercise today. By the end of the week they will shake more investors out as this price climbs above the $3.30 buyout price. The uniformed investors will sell as we pass the $3.30 mark on no news thinking this is their opportunity to get out of this charade at the best possible price. Little do they know that the deal willl be done almost 50% higher.
DISH is the smaller entity .. more significant in marketshare and with some nice spectrum and a different, needed orientation to products and markes than SB-Sprint, but still the much smaller fish that wants to swimn out into the mobile ocean.
While it makes sense for there to be a 'whole greater than the sum of the pieces' coming together, Charlie Ergen must be willing to take only his fair share, which is much subordinate to SB-Sprint. Clearwire is a subsidiary of SB-S in all likelihood.. dot the i's and cross the t's its done.
Softbank-Sprint might think that they do not need DISH unless the company is willing to roll over. I think there are synergies to make a deal worthwhile. However, Softbank is so much stronger of a player that when combined with Sprint and not pucking up as in the past, they can go places without DISH at a premium to the bargain. Sprint under Hesse is doing better... on the right tract and all that jazz. They remain a financial and scale-to-market basket case without Softbank, but with them seem to be able to execute similar to their historical prime periods. Having observed Sprint for years, sometimes very intimately, I have to hold back on enthusiasms until the whimsical thoughts come down to earth through execution that does not nearly bankrupt them... again.
"The picture looks so bright.. I might get either blinded or 'totally blind sided dude'.