1. We know S will not raise the price
2. We know Son is fine with 67% ownership of CLWR
3. We know the merger will not go through
4. We know a long protracted lawsuit might ensue with no clear winner
5. We know Sprint will be able to control CLWR and reject anything that is unfit for their own goal
1. The stock will hold at $3 level for another 1 - 2 months until S deal closes
2. No higher offer will come. Even if it comes, it will be rejected by S regardless what the board thinks (this is why people want to be majority owner)
3. Over 3 - 6 month timeframe, the stock will trickle back to $ 1 - 2
4. S will proceed with using CLWR spectrum to deploy the LTE
5. Hedge funds will get out as they are there for short term gain. They will lose interest soon as long #$%$ or Son do not budge.
6. Crest will fight on because its cost basis was high and they are obligated not to write off the loss.
ergen bids 2 billions for lightsquare 30 MHz of spectrum. I still don't understand how some still fantasize that clearwire 130 MHz of spectrum worth 30 billions. If clearwire's spectrum is the same frequency as lightsquare then it should be worth only 8 to 9 bllions. but lightsquare's spectrum is much better because it is in the lower frequency therefore signal can propagate further and deeper. So sprint 8+ billions bid for clearwire is already a gift. based on ergen's valuation of lightsquare's spectrum. obviously ergen's bid is a low ball offer but nevertheless, it shows clearwire's valuation is no where near some on this board or crest claim. I wished sprint will never increase its offer and just let clearwire slowly fall back to where it should be ie 1.50!
The 1.5GHz/L- band is really poor from an ecosystem perspective. In the US, it is occupied by defense and NASA. To say it is better than an established band like 2.5GHz is an incredible reach.
If you want a rich ecosystem in the US for TDD-LTE, the clear path is Clearwire.
Clwr skips debt payment and sprint either raises offer above 5 or loses $2.5 billion as their shares become worthless and they get to bid against companies that have cash and who actually have business models that. Do not have them losing billions each year?
I doubt S will let CLWR skip interest payment. It will offer more exchangable notes. One thing people fail to realize is that minority has few protections. Otherwise, why would anyone want to be a majority shareholder? Basically, there is nothing a monority shareholder can do as long #$%$ protects its own interest in a fair manner.