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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

  • cs917047 cs917047 Jun 25, 2013 4:41 AM Flag

    Bloomberg interview: Dish's Ergen Has `Lots of Options,' Taylor Says

    Good article, except for 1 option: Imo they should take into account another tender offer to get more then 25% of the shares of CLWR. In doing so and in succeeding in this tender offer, Mr Ergen will get a seat at the table.

    Can Charlie wait for the FCC to license new spectrum? Will he be able to get his hands on that new spectrum and when will that be?

    Don't count Charlie out of the CLWR saga just yet! What's the worst that can happen? You losing 3 cents on each CLWR share; on each $5?

    Sentiment: Hold

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • As far as being able to wait for more spectrum, the FCC incentive auction for 600MHz is due to take place next year. DISH has not begun commercial deployments yet. The base station equipment from all major suppliers supports multiple bands... 600MHz will be supported when its available so that DISH should be able to deploy base stations sooner and then make use of 600MHz RRUs if they are successful in acquiring licenses.

      The options are available within a workable time frame. Its not a sure thing to compete for marketshare in a highly saturated mobile centered marketplace, but change to the broadband-TV everywhere presents about a 3-5 year window of opportunity to pursue a place along mobile operators... with the stress on TV to the home of course.

    • Ergen can very likely no longer get to 25%, therefore, Sprint's effort to acquire CLWR will not be blocked and the company will no longer have minority shareholders as the shares will be surrendered to Sprint at 5.00.

      Ergen can pursue 600MHz spectrum when it comes up for auction next year. Among options is to assemble a competitive mix of 20-30MHz of 600MHz (wide coverage), the 40MHz of 2.1MHz MSS, and use Wi-Fi and 5GHz 802.11ac (up to 1Gbps for back-haul and future smartphone connections), 3.5GHz, and higher freqs. Ergen can also work out BB roaming agreements with Sprint-Sb and others.

      DISH's hurdle is building and operating the more complex fixed-mobile network and building marketshare from the ground up rather than through an acquisition. That can be done, imo, but can also prove ruinous if not pursued in a way that pays for itself over a reasonable amount of time.

      • 3 Replies to teamrep
      • Some major factors working in DISH's favor to build TV-mobile outside of a major carrier acquisition:

        a. The TV-mobile transition market is already primed for market entry
        b. He has useful spectrum to start
        c. BB roaming agreements are doable, if not the ideal situation
        d. Mobile devices are expected to shift to using 802.11ac which has higher capacity, lower latency that is designed to be used for TV/video. This transition will start later this year and will take 3-5 years to reach market saturation, however, the timing is not that bad.
        e. DISH has positive cash flows and access to capital to acquire spectrum and build networks reasonably
        f. Current TV marketshare... while most subs already have mobile service, 14 mil subs serves as a business platform
        g. 5,000+ trained person TV dish deployment approach that can be used for home-small business 'rooftop' small cell installation.
        h. ARPU for combined BB and TV service that can pay for building of new networks if spending is kept tight.
        i. Some remaining possibility to acquire smaller operators like LEAP
        j. Collaboration with MVNOs such as American Movil owned? This hinges on willingness of the MVNOs of course.
        k. Further Innovations in marketing, alternative sales channels, devices, whatever else makes sense.

        DISH has other options which makes a 'legit offer' for Clearwire at this late date unlikely because the costs have grown high.

      • Ok, as of now S shareholders have agreed to the merger. Are they certain they have enough of CLWR?

      • Hey stupid, Ergen can change the deal or incentivize Sprint to sell some of there position.

    • sprint and softbank have won the poker game on clearwire. ergen will use his spectrum and money to pursue t-mobile. if he don't do so quickly someone else will bid and he maybe left out of the new game completely. but he will not spend all his money on clearwire when t-mobile is still there for the taking.

 

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