The arb decay between now and the close of this deal doesn't even cover a commission.
It should remain a penny or 2 below $5 until it's done.
This is just as true today (July 2nd) as it was when I wrote it on June 26th.
CLWR stock has been doing exactly that since then.
There are a lot of garbage posts on this message board suggesting all kinds of new, high, whatever, bids for Clearwire. Give me all the thumbs down you like, but that doesn't alter reality for anybody out here sense-one...
This thing is over, $5 is the price, and the arbs will hold it at $4.99 until it closes. If you think otherwise, I know a good psychologist I could recommend.
Spok,, why would Charlie not make a higher bid if he could make hundreds of millions of dollars by doing so? He already has the loans as he was raising money to buy Sprint, he is holding many shares and his affiliates could all make additional millions of dollars? FCC has not made its final decision and most importantly it is undervalued at $5 dollars per share. If it was not worth significantly more then Son would not have countered with $5.
I sure thought this would go to $6, but the latest offer by S seems to cut Charlie off at every pass. Too bad. The next news I hope to hear is,"Hesse, will be leaving to spend some quality time with his family."
I recall that you were buying on the cheaper price points, blitz. A higher bid would have been nice, but there was realism in the power that sprint weilded, unethical as it may have been.
In the end, deep value prevailed and sprint had to cough up and extra 68% over their initial attempt to rip off their minority shareholders. $6 or more would have been "justice served", given how crooked Dan Hesse turned out to be, by $5 was a solid win for people with solid, contrarian convictions.
As contrarian, asset-intensive plays go, this one was a real roller coaster, but then....
.... did I ever tell you about the roller coaster I once played where the $150 stock dropped to $1.38 in barely 19 month's time? 2 points I'd like to make about THAT one....
... :-O and... ;-)
Why are there buys at 5? Who would buy? You are just going to get 5?? I have call options till the end if July so I guess I'm going to wait a little longer could not hurt.
here's a outrageous question, but i have to ask it...could Ergen come back and rebid for Clwr, let's say with some other firm behind him in name only? it just seems out of character for Ergen to fold the tent [even with days left in his bid window, he bowed out early...] could this be a mother of all head fake's by Ergen?
CLWR is still the best bet for Ergen, IMO, but there are a lot of decks stacked against him. The judge's comments, the endorsement by Kellett & Co., the $115 million severance CLWR would have to pay to break the deal with sprint (which probably contributed to the size of the $5 bid), Hesse contracting with Steven Segal to man a machine gun nest outside of Ergen's home...
... not to mention it's still a minority stake that would have to be accompanied by any operating agreements that would still need to be hammered out with a hostile Mr. Son.
I think that if Ergen knew he could get his $4.40 deal for $5.50, that he would bid it... but too many incremental new roadblocks have surfaced since that $4.40 bid was made to make $5.50 feasible.
Spint's degree of control is significant... we knew that... but CLWR's value was huge, and that attracted the attention needed to get the price up to something less than ridiculous.
When sprint bid $2.97, I surmized that we wouldn't get anything higher than $4 to $4.50...
... thanks to Ergen, I was delightfully wrong about that, and this turned out to be a very good investment.
Why is that? Perhaps they are saying very little about it for good reasons... like their hands recently got burned.
You guys are so prejudiced... when do you ever look at a company as just a company? This is like watching a sports match .. Go XYZW! Go... ABCD is worthless slime! Kill them.
The Internet, even this hacked stock board, sometimes are a revolution unto themselves: when in the history of mankind could people from all over the world 'meet' post information and ideas and have and open airing of ideas? That should be a great leveling of the playing field if it was conducted fairly and methodically. The openness is a huge benefit because it attracts lots of people.. or is supposed to.
Yahoo! has become a joke - instead of allowing people to do basic things like screen posts based on who they want to converse with or to stop spammers, they let the boards become polluted, eliminated posting links, limit length (most of you probably like that ... it does force me to limit posts (rear kick).
Or are these boards just cheer leading sessions... warped out sensibilities? Opposing views should be tolerated even encouraged if done well. Not 'beat down anyone not in our fan club!'
I agree, and they stated the reason is because CLWR changed recommendation, which is actually not saying anything. There is a slight chance something may still come out of this.
But we have to be honest here, the odds seem very low for anything to still come from Charlie, seems he bowed out quietly, and will probably look somewhere else.
Because he could simply have made an amendment to his tender offer and up the price, he didn't actually have to withdraw it did he?
The next thing to look forward to now is, will more than half of minority actually vote for the $5 bid on July 8th, my guess is yes they will. Would have liked more but seems this is it. Oh well.
Looks like Mt Kellet really did us in, but on the other hand, probably we would have been at a lower price if it wasn't for them either, so I guess we can't blame them.
So, is anyone else still going to step up, or is this the end of it? Is S/SB going to walk away with the biggest swathe of spectrum or is someone else still going to take a stab at it? We'll know within 2 weeks...