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The Western Union Company Message Board

  • redheadinvestor Mar 27, 2013 5:55 PM Flag

    Conditions favorable, gap entered

    Technicals favorable (see StockTA). Moreover, I'd hazard that we've made a decisive entrance into the gap between 14.69 and 17.84. 14.69 was the HOD of the plunge day and 17.84 was the LOD just before the plunge.

    Today is not the first trip above 14.69 post-crash, but recent action suggests that we're above 14.69 to stay for the foreseeable. WU was above 14.69 from start to finish today. In early February we got up here but couldn't sustain it. Now I think it's sustained.

    Also, the index is at record levels. If the index can clear the hurdle, gains in the gap might be swift as buyers throw off hesitation and enter the market. If not, gains might be more gradual. But assuming there is no fundamental issue at earnings time - can't be ruled out, but none seems likely, in 4Q it was likelier and there was none - we've probably entered an important new bull phase. Filling the gap will take some time and even near 18 WU would remain significantly undervalued.

    Disclaimer: This optimism is assuming no unusual market event, such as a crash. I think a market crash is extremely unlikely, but it can't be 100% ruled out as impossible. Even so, though, I still like the rock-solid cash flows and would be buying on any such event after any dust cleared.

18.61-0.13(-0.69%)Oct 6 4:00 PMEDT