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The Western Union Company Message Board

  • redheadinvestor May 17, 2013 9:44 AM Flag

    :-) Sorry I went overboard. I just get tired of GOOG

    Wall Street loves two hack-analyst theories.

    Freshman version: GOOG will own you
    Sophomore version: In the near future, all things will be found on GOOG, made by AAPL, bought from AMZN, paid for by EBAY (PayPal), and shared on FB.

    If (big if!) GOOG manages to deploy this system and it passes regulatory or compliance muster (another big if! - have fun with that, GOOG), its main competitor would not be WU, but EBAY (PayPal) because the GOOG system is web-dependent and bank-dependent.

    The counterintuitive concept for being long WU is that the non-web space in the WU industry, where WU dominates, is extremely valuable, yet the web space is comparatively easy for WU to penetrate, while the billion-dollar-per-year space WU now dominates is totally inaccessible to GOOG (and EBAY). Yes, WU must grow electronically - it has no choice, it is a must - but that growth is also both large and incremental (gravy) - the cannibalization component is small. In other words, WU is not Blockbuster Video and EBAY is not NFLX. WU doesn't have branches, it has agents; the agents are not cost centers, they are revenue centers. Anyway

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