IMO, cold weather will cause medium term fluctuations in unit price. So if it gets cold in texas (and I am able to verify that it has been pretty chilly down here) we'll move up. That's in response to perceived yield improvement.
To a certain extent, more propane means more profit...half of NRGY revenue is from the wholesale side. Profit margins are razor thin here, though....I think something like 10% of profit comes from wholesale. So you do the math: half the revenue but 10% of the profit. Retail is where it's at, folks!
Long term, however, NRGY is a roll-up artist. They roll-up mom-and-pop players in a very fragmented industry. Then they leverage their lower cost structure and economies of scale to make those roll-ups accretive...while keeping trusted management & staff in place. Like the Q's and K's say: established brands in high pop growth areas with good propane utilization rates.
So long term you should pay attention to how many acquisitions NRGY is making & how accretive those acquisitions are. I believe this business strategy has a lot of leg left in it.
They make 65% of their earnings this quarter, so cold weather is important. The distribution has already been raised ,so share price isn't going anywhere until we see have a healthy quarter. I'll admit to loosing track of the weather in their service area because I'm fairly content with the distribution and don't mind hovering around $24.. Any posters more tuned in to the weather back east care to update the board?