Before the opening, I put a .25 trailing stop loss on my units. Executed at 18.69. I have owned this stock for about four years and saw it go up very nicely. I took a $8000 hit last friday and got $2400 of it back this week. I have finally lost my nerve and got out before ex-div because I am afraid of a collapse after the div date. It will certainly lose .70 the next day from wherever it is Monday. Management is going to have to make some decisions and give us guidence on future dividends before most of us are going to step back in. GLTA longs, hope to rejoin you soon.
Hope to have you back. I think we will see a jump tomorrow and then a dip on Monday. They will be close to cancelling each other out and we will be in the mid to high $18 range at close Monday. I expect modest gains from there with a $20-$25 range by the end of February. Still a strong company.
Good points, but those that bought last week's selloff may also decide that they'd rather switch to something that doesn't have the dividend cut uncertainty (there is still some uncertainty over what the new divy will be, so why buy that and hope it doesn't turn out too bad when you can buy a different MLP, not in the propane sector, that has some growth and no divy issue).
I think today's move up on an ex-div day could be a gift.
I actually expected a sell off of about 2 to 3%, but the stock is behaving actually pretty good, I got in at $17.75 before Ex Date so I'm on the black. However, If we have a current yield of 15% and the company was able to cover 67 or 68% of the contribution. I'm thinking to be safe the div should be cut by half to 7.5 or 8% yield. Which is pretty decent in my opinion.
So what do you call the 25% sell-off that already happened in the shares when NRGY announced that the distribution was going down after this one? While there may be some sell below the ex-dist price, it's not at all like anybody who held for the dist was in the dark about the altogether likelihood of it being reduced going forward. Why would there be another whole round of panic selling a second time on the same issue as 1 week ago? Management just went over their company strategy and the details in the numbers, and the market reacted rather decently, considering the troughing nature of the business presently. Today is a wash at best but I'm not sure I see the reason for an inevitable sell-off to 14 or whatever.
And you do know that NRGM is 75% owned by NRGY? GLTY too, but imho only with a hard market leg down or even worse industry related news does it continue down another 20%. The distribution issue is baked in and next week this thing should be available to get a bounce beyond it. Remember, this one is already way way out of favor and been punished accordingly. Maybe it does get worse but that'd have to be pretty bad.
No, didnt go short. I did a couple of things. Bought the $17.5 Feb call hoping it would run by today to at least the mid 19'S. When it looked like that wasnt going to happen I sold them at 9:30 for a $.40/unit profit. I also bought the April 17.5 put for $.85 thinking that after it goes ex-dividend that we might test 15. If it goes down enough I'm interested in selling the $17.50 July put and hopefully have those shares put to me so that my re-entry point is in the $14's (yes, I sold my shares for a loss in January). It should be an interesting next two months.
I think we might have seen short covering right there as it rose to 18.40. There may have been the faulty logic at work among them that there would be another implosion. Instead they figured it was the better part of honor to pay the 4% fee for playing against the distribution, and covered. This thing is still awfully beaten down though and a nice support being built down here.