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  • phughyoung phughyoung Apr 20, 2012 12:32 PM Flag

    div cut?

    That's the whole point. If this were a normal quarter, we would all be happy to have the announcement then.

    This is not a normal quarter. Management announced in February that they would be reducing the distribution, but said they needed to study the issue and would make an announcement about it in due course. Given that NRGY's fortunes have been declining for a year, it seemed fairly obvious to most of us who have owned, or studied, this company over the years, that the distribution could have been cut then and there by 50%. That would have settled the issue, removed the uncertainty, and we could have gone forward from there.

    Management's failure to do that implied that there were issues going on behind the scenes that needed to be dealt with. The problem is that we no longer know what those issues might be. The uncertainty caused by management unnecessary delays has been a direct cause of collapse in the unit price from the mid-20s to the mid-teens. As long as the distribution remains uncertain, so will the unit price decline.

    Hopefully that helps you understand my earlier post.

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    • I certainly understood your earlier post. I just disagree with you on the timing of the announcement. Companies rarely change the timing of their ongoing announcements. I would consider them to be extremely bad management if they announced their distribution earlier without having looked at all of the numbers. Maybe its not a normal quarter but for that reason, they have to be even more diligent that normal (not less diligent).

      There is a reason for the timing of the announcements. They just don't pick a number out of a hat. They have to gather a shitload of numbers and do a bunch of planning exercises in order to figure out what they can provide for a distribution. The distribution is probably one of the last things that they decide after looking at the numbers for the previous quarter and estimates for the coming quarter.

      I recently bought into NRGY and will buy more from here if it goes lower (just missed another buy today). I do not, of course, have the same perspective as a long term holder.

      I am looking at NRGY like I looked at TNH several years ago when fertilizer prices tanked and they had to cut their dividend. I bought around $75 or so. I am just hoping for a cold winter next year or even the year after.

      • 1 Reply to chrisjcrash
      • Thanks. Those of us who have been involved with NRGY for the last several years concluded last summer that the distribution had to be reduced in line with cash flow. It was perfectly obvious. So, for management to finally acknowledge that in February, but to be utterly unprepared to make a decision, seemed very short-sighted. I am not alone in my thinking on this. Look at chart for the last year and with particular emphasis starting in February. Lots of people concluded, correctly IMO that management is way behind the curve.

        Contragulations of your TNH investment. I sold mine much too early after having a 20-fold return from the late 90s. Couldn't stand the prosperity.