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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

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  • markmrmx6 markmrmx6 Jun 1, 2012 5:27 PM Flag

    Sale Probability

    Deal risk is impossible to guess, especially in today's world when you have to look forward more than 30 days. Anything can happen, but I am sure you know that.

    Sadly, it looks as if I will get my chance to buy in again around $16. There is just nothing compelling about the stock at this time except for a yield. I just hope the rest of the market stays together.

    I know it is risky for management to talk of the Company's future plans, but at the moment that is all this Company has and there really isn't enough good "after the sale" information to really make a buy or sell decision - so by default the sellers win.

    Am I missing a good, clear, factual reason to buy?

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    • I actually think the GP is a screaming buy right now. Ignoring the obvious high yield. NRGY is a very sound business especially after the sale to SPH. I have worked in the Asset Management/Trading area of the physical and financial natural gas market for almost a decade and can tell you they have extremely good assets. I have personally delt with almost all facilities. They are highly strategic to the today's and the future gas market. Yes most are now held in NRGM but NRGY hold 75% of those shares and also has IDR's as well. Long range forecasts for winter 12/13 are trending colder and colder. Even a modestly cold winter will bring gas prices and more notably spreads to higher and wider levels. The sale to SPH is virtually leaving NRGY debt free...and i know it is somewhat of an oxymoron...Underlevered. This will enable NRGY the flexibility to acquire other midstream assets or sell the GP to NRGM(would not surprise me). Now if the sale doesnt go through there is a silver lining...the coming cold winter. Propane prices are down significantly and tend to track are now starting to see a decoupling. All of the shale drilling is unlocking liquids which is beneficial to the retail and wholesale propane consumer...wholesale propane is now trading under a $.90 gallon compared to $1.47 a year ago. Low Propane price coupled with cold or even a normal winter mean higher revs. So while i like the sale, i won't be to disappointed if it doesn't go through. The asset only gets more valuble with higher ebitda. One other issue. I read the seeking alpha MLP DCF author and enjoy his stuff but I think he fails to look forward with his only focuses on the present. A normal winter will bring higher DCF ratios. I have went on too long and wont bother to spell check. Hope this gives you another reason. Have a good weekend