I've wondered the same thing for a few weeks and may have found a clue. The most recent 10K has an estimate of the proved reserves and income expected from them prepared by a consultant (App A). This is not my field and I may be interpreting this too simplistically, but if you take his estimate of future net income, $293,540,439 and divide it by the number of trust units 17,605,000 you get $16.67 which is about where the units are selling today. That number does not include any discount rate for inflation or expected return. It is also based on last years average price which was $4.35/Mcf and does not reflect the hedges. If you expect 2% inflation and wanted to make 8% on you your investment, the units are worth less than $10 unless nat gas gets considerably more expensive which I find unlikely. Conclusion: Sell, I did.
the production decline curve being quite steep for NG Marcellus wells the question becomes will the production peak during a continued times of depressed NG prices (even with the positive impact of the hedging program thru 2014).
I am adding at these levels but see this taking about a year to show marked improvement. NG is just too cheap a source of energy to remain at these levels. If NG doubles by 2014-15 ECT will be up at least 50% from here.