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ECA Marcellus Trust I Message Board

  • motherwearsarmyboots motherwearsarmyboots Mar 24, 2013 11:33 PM Flag

    Correction: ECA Trust I from $20 to $9 Bucks

    got to be a sick parent company and thus danger to this trust. Seeking Alpha articles on this were quite devastating reviews.

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    • Liz are you delusional?? The trust by your own admission does NOT yield 20%!! I tried to say it would distribute 15 dollars over the remaining life of the trust. You said it wouldn't be anywhere near that. Now you say it has a 20% yield. Over the remaining life of the trust it's nowhere NEAR 20%.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 4 Replies to walrathcrai
      • No Liz like it or not you have to have SOME idea of what a trust will distribute in order to know whether it is a good investment. I guess you just buy a bunch of trusts and hope they work out. Not much of a strategy.

      • "you can't answer a simple question as to what you think the trust will distribute over its remaining life."

        tell me the future of NG prices over the next 17 years along with the precise decline characteristics of these wells and I will tell you. People who pretend they can predict the unknowable are either fooling themselves or trying to deceive, either way not to be listened to.

      • Your pompous posts containing no logic whatsoever bother me. You pretend to know much but you can't answer a simple question as to what you think the trust will distribute over its remaining life.

      • Of course. I mean right now, assuming the next distribution is in the 50% range.
        Over time the payout will decline, faster or slower depending to some extent on the future of NG prices which to some extent are unknown.
        Can you stop this obsession with my portfolio performance.

        P.S. Haven't you got anything better to do that hang on this board waiting for me to post something?
        I go away for a couple of days and no sooner do I come back and post anything at any time of day or night you seem to be there to reply to my every comment within a few minutes. Why so obsessed with me?

    • Explain how the trust dropping implies a sick parent company.

      Anyway, it has really declined from $14 to $11 (today's price).
      $14 not $20 as it has already paid $6 in distributions and it is part of the normal way of a trust to decline with each distribution since it is just monetization of a fixed asset. All trusts will end up at zero, so your silly logic would mean you could say about any trust at the end that it has lost 100% of its value. May be true but that misses the point of the whole purpose of a trust which is to distribute its value over a period of time.

      So, the price has dropped from $14 (including distributions) to $11.27, which is a 20% loss. Not really worthy of all the commotion here.

      And, anyway, it doesn't imply anything about the parent being sick.

      • 4 Replies to lizahuang54321
      • To the board buffoon:
        " You paid $20 for a trust that is now worth 11.27. That is a capital loss of 8.73. You got $6 in distributions which you WILL pay taxes on someday. How do figure you're coming out ahead?"

        Why are you so obsessed with my daily portfolio performance (even when I am not)?
        Yes, one day taxes on the distributions may be due (but that doesn't mean I want to pay them today).
        And if the price never recovers then there may also be a capital loss, which would also let me offset against capital gains (which I never stop accumulating from selling options and letting the time value erode the premium). But, as I've explained, my basis (including distributions) is $14 and the current price of $11 represents a current 20% unrealized loss on a position which is only half a percent of my portfolio and which nevertheless continues to yield 20%.
        I am supposed to be so freaked out about that? It's trivial, not worth worry about in the least. You however seem very concerned about it.

      • "LIZ, can you point to any website that reports the financial health of the parent Energy Corporation of America, a private company?"

        Not if they are a private company. But the reason for the drop in value in ECT is not so mysterious as you imply. The biggest reason is that NG prices have been low for the first 3 years of this trust. When the trust came out NG was at $5. Since these type of wells decline quickly, the production is front loaded (more of it happens earlier). So the biggest 3 years of production have come during unprecedented lows in NG prices. That was not to be known when the trust first came out and is a hard thing to recover from as a significant chunk of the total lifetime payouts of the trust have been reduced significantly. It doesn't imply the parent company is sick, however they are probably suffering from low NG prices too.

      • Actually genius the logic is simple. You paid $20 for a trust that is now worth 11.27. That is a capital loss of 8.73. You got $6 in distributions which you WILL pay taxes on someday. How do figure you're coming out ahead??

        Sentiment: Hold

      • LIZ, can you point to any website that reports the financial health of the parent Energy Corporation of America, a private company? This trust price has dropped disportionately to mere distribution of earnings. Would be just trading dollars without any earnings, if the trust price dropped by the exact amount of distributions would it; that is what you seem to imply? A sudden 20% price is certainly worthy of the comment commotion here.....no?

 
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