I don't think that anyone was saying that it was a "killer quarter". But it certainly was pretty decent. They weren't asked about the drop in deferred revenue so I am not really sure about the reason for that. But license revenue grew pretty nicely, and that usually bodes well for future quarters. They were asked if they expected to continue that trend and they responded affirmatively.
Whether they will or not remains to be seen.
The numbers are all in the press release and the 8-K. The deferred revenue, A/R, A/P information is on the balance sheet. Sometimes you have to look at the previous Q's 8-K to see the balance sheet changes depending on how the company reports.
Be very careful of a company that generates 2M of EBITDA but sees deferred revs go down by $4.5M and only generates $700k in cash from ops when A/R drops by $1.5M and A/P goes up by $1.1M. This was not a good quarter.
I am not a Saba basher. I hope they do well, but this wasn't the strong quarter everyone thinks it was.
I am not the biggest SABA bull on the planet. However, if they can generate earnings like this past quarter (or better) going forward, I think the stock will do fine.
Consistency has been their bugaboo. Maybe they are turning the corner. Perhaps wishful thinking, perhaps not. We'll have to wait and see.
FirstMark Capital, a spin-off of Pequot Capital, finally had enough and needed to liquidate it's substantial position. FM CEO Lawrence Lenihan was on the Saba Board of Directors. Saba bought half of their position because they had to in order to prevent the price from tanking, since there were no good prospective buyers for their large position of over 2.7M shares. Lenihan quit the Saba Board prior to initiating the sale of his stock. Also note that Saba's largest shareholder, Diker, has been consistently liquidating its position over the last couple months.
Sounds like confidence to me!
Saba forecasted .25-.29 non-GAAP earnings for 2010 with the strength weighted in the last two quarters of the year. So if they come in with decent earnings today for Q1 (hopefully better than expected but with these guys you never know), we are in good shape.