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NMT MEDICAL INC Message Board

  • Paxmaker Paxmaker Jan 1, 2011 4:16 PM Flag

    While we wait, what is the breakup value of NMTI?

    Thought this might be a useful speculation,whereby the company is either able to get an investment to keep the company going while it explores the benefits of Biotrek and maybe a special segment of the PFO population with more robust results in comparison to treatment as usual, or it initiaties discussion with interested parties for the aquisition of all or parts of the company.
    First there are about 16 million shares outstanding. I cannot recall whether there are warrants or other forms of dilution still active. Revenue from sales is about 0.75 per share or about 12 million/yr. In valuing a price for the company, my bid would be a discounted 4 or 5 years of revenue minus the net cost of the operation integrated into my sales and adminsitration and research operation, if I were a large company making the buy.
    So, let's try to figure out what this would mean. If you look at the nine months ended Sept 30, 2010 and eliminate the costs of research and development and administration (about $11 million), that would equate to a surplus of about $400,000/9 months or annualized surplus of about $530,000.
    Add back a cost of about $1 million/yr to provide for a transition to a merged company for research and adminstrative purposes, for about 2 years to allow for full integration to occur and for these costs to be absorbed by increased sales from product development/sales. For years 3 thru 5, due diligence would allow a minimum of $500,000 accretion to the bottom line of the aquiring company per year, not allowing for increaased benefits from products and patents acquired. Adding the value of cash (0.21/share) and other balance sheet items (0.26/share) to net accrual (.09/share), we have a share price of 0.56/share plus the value of patents. So the minimum buyout price would be something like $8 million plus estimated patents price of about $5 million yielding something like 0.81/share. Am I missing something or have I low balled the patents (recall I calculated current net operating benefits to the acquiring company as being negative in years one and two and about $500,000/year in years 3 thru 5)If you double the value of the patents, that would yield a buyout of $18 million or $1.125/share.
    That's about it.

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    • 180,000 shares in the 1st hour. Come on now, someone has got to know something. Please fess up. It can't all be speculation can it.? I can't stand it anymore. Please help.

    • Your speculation would be one of potential scenarios, but it would be out of the reality if there is a big company that would be interested in buying out NMTI. You can see my point if you take a look at how AGAM was sold to St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ). My feeling is that a selling price would be at least 5 to 6 times the total revenue, which would be around $50 to $60 million dollars. I would speculate that a PPS would be at least $3 to $4. I think that was why the PPS was around $2.50 to $4.50 before the results of the PFO study were announced. If the study was successful, our PPS would have been jumped to at least $10-$12 now. Or if there was a merger announcement before the results, our PPS would have been around $6 to $8. Since the PFO study was not quite successful, a PPS of around $3 to $4 for sale of NMTI would be reasonable. All IMO. Let’s hope the best.

 
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