It is my understanding theat the ten protype units in Greenville, SC are doing an average of over $40k a week front-end business. Some in the more rural suburbs-not close to major competition-are adding $60k. There is chatter that if this test mkt continues to prosper it will be expanded eventually to another 2k RAD locations before the end of the year. Seems RAD is running the show right now but SVU swings the big stick in the game and eventually will make all the merchandising decisions.
IMHO I think something big is brewing and I hope this is a little bit a good news for all us SUV longs.
I don't know what SVU's share value should be but it should be highly volatile as with all highly leveraged companies.
Can see an argument for calling it a call option as you indicate (given $2 value) but I believe you are demonstrably wrong wrong regarding the two business issues you raised (RICO and performance of SAL RAD stores) so my guess is you are overstating the risk.
I know bankruptcy is possible but I think the risk/return here is reasonable. Time will tell.
I agree the Southern California RAD ( Thrifty ) stores are doing well. This is the only part of the chain doing well as WAG and CVS are limited to where they can go into due to real estate availability.
So Cali is keeping RAD afloat.
Where WAG can buy locations they are, especially the free standing RAD locations.
Evidently, you haven't shopped at a SoCal RiteAid, just bring a book to read while you're waiting in line. Walmart rejects at the register. And pharmacists are some of the most nasty there are. They can't even do Xmas trees in Dec, they put them in the sun without any basins.
Shorting SVU is as close to a sure thing as you can get...LOL
Walgreens and CVS will be the two major players left standing in the pharmacy arena. There is no room left for a debt lasden RAD entity. Within 24 months every RAD location will have either a WAG or CVS store within walking distance of their stores. Whenever a WAG or CVS store opens up near a RAD store, RAD closes up shop shortly there after.
Pick your state to see the disaster Rite Aid is looking at paying for hundreds of empty stores across the country.
So Walgreens is moving toward total dominance and no one else should compete? Wal-Mart for one would disagree with you. Expect there are a few others.
Lots of risk everywhere including being short SVU.
The licensed stores were considered superior from a profitability perspective when I was there. That was quite a few years ago so I don't know if it is still true but my guess is that it is still the case.
Some of the rural SAL were really exceptional in that the buildings were small and inexpensively put together, very low cost products, clean and carried everything a buyer needed. Just exceptional. I never liked the stores in metropolitan areas and I thought Aldi's was a better operator.
SVU should provide S-A-L numbers in their financial reporting or spin the thing off. Very different operation from the traditional grocer.