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SUPERVALU Inc. Message Board

  • xyzabc198010 xyzabc198010 May 21, 2012 1:04 PM Flag

    Shorts' Game Plan is on hold for now

    $2 drop from recent high it has been the masterful plan, well executed by short sellers. That plan is on hold for now, set back by an upgrade, this morning, from hold to buy issued by Longbow Research, with an $8 price target. What is significant about this upgrade is that Longbow is an independent research company providing services to institutions and individual investors. They don't trade the stocks covered, or take any positions. This bit of information will give you an idea about the unbiased nature of their research and reporting, as opposed to whatever GS or other long side research analyst puts out there. Longbow doesn’t make money from price movement in the stocks they cover, while all other guys do. So, who do you think is more credible?

    If shorts don't bring this back down in the next couple of days, they will have a hard time from now on, depending on how fast SVU will move up. If they'll succeed to take it down back to 4.6 the pain will continue for the shareholders, until you see that massive sell-off on 20-40 mil shares, that will mark the bottom.
    Every day flat, or slightly up, is a small dent into short sellers' plan, and it will erode them slowly, in time, as it makes it's way back to 6.5.

    We’ll see which rout we'll take, out of this hole.

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    • around chicago they close stores and space goes to a more regional chain or specialty supermarket (hispanic, italian,etc. It's a way out of the lease

    • Remove all the prepositions,adjectives and games for the actual change in retail square footage from 2011 to 2012, per the 10k.

      "Total retail square footage as of the end of fiscal 2012 was approximately 64 million, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the end of fiscal 2011"

      That is the most straight forward line in regards to square feet of retail and it was in the current 10K.

    • money_money_more_money money_money_more_money May 23, 2012 12:25 PM Flag

      "Why would anyone not include planed store dispositions?"

      Because depending on what's the plan for current FY, the square footage may not decrease (or increase).

      I saw they are planning on 50 new SAL stores this year.. Coudn't find how many they are planning on closing.

    • The line is from the 10K

      Square footage shrank.All you have to do is the math.

      Why would anyone not include planed store dispositions?
      That means they weren't including stores that they had actually or planned to dispose of?

      The line with the actual change in retail square footage is very close to that line in the 10K.

    • money_money_more_money money_money_more_money May 23, 2012 11:55 AM Flag

      I got my data from 2012 Fact book they have on the website.

      If that data is also correct, 10K is missing some component of square footage, as 64 million is less than 78.1 million reported on the fact sheet.

      The 10K also says:

      Total retail square footage, excluding actual and planned store dispositions, increased 0.8 percent from the end of fiscal 2011. New stores and licensed hard-discount stores contributed $481 to retail sales increases in fiscal 2012.

      Not sure how many stores they are planning to close ( or add) in FY2013.

    • Total square footage is dropping.If it were not the total sales drop would be lower than the same store sales drop.Here is the line from the 10K.

      "Total retail square footage as of the end of fiscal 2012 was approximately 64 million, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the end of fiscal 2011"

      They ended up with more stores as they were adding smaller Sav Alots than they were closing while closing more traditional supermarkets than they were opening.

    • money_money_more_money money_money_more_money May 23, 2012 11:03 AM Flag

      If I am reading it right:

      Ending Store Count
      2011: 2394
      2012: 2434

      Square Footage (in millions)
      2011: 77.6
      2012: 78.1

      That doesn't look like dropping.

      Yes, Identical store sales are decreasing, but again, they decreased less:
      2011: -6.0%
      2012: -2.8%
      So no one know which way it will be in 2013, continue to deteriorate or improve.

    • I'm getting the distinct impression that all of the pro SVU are financial wiz kidz.

      I ask for simple positive signs in operations and all anyone has is more financial engineering.

      Paying a huge premium to buy a supermarket is what got the company in trouble to begin with.Now it is the old sum of the parts being worth more than the whole claim.Without any support to boot.

      Sales are dropping,square footage is dropping,assets are already being sold and other chains just have to wait for SVU to close outlets before taking over locations.Without operational improvements, the chain is in trouble,calling for buy outs,sale of assets or sum of parts valuation are nothing but dream.

    • Sell the company stores to independant operators to eliminate the debt and just supply them.This also eliminates the "fat" corporate management on the expense side.The wholesale side of SVU is worth more than the stock is selling for.

    • I have a quantity of shares that I am very comfortable owning,0.

      Once again there does not seem to be any answer to the very simple questions of what will be the catalyst that sends the stock up and what is changing operationally that is an indication that the company is moving in the right direction .

      If the company keeps paying down the debt for the next 4 years and same store sales drop at a 1-2% rate ,the company cuts its total square footage and the top line sales drop about 3% a year I do not see a reason for the stock to turn.How long can the company cut and defer capex payments to preserve the cash flow before it starts to accelerate the negate sales trends at the stores?

      They would only have to improve to the point of being a mediocre operator to get small increases in same store sales.

      If they are able to show top line and same store sales increases for a couple of quarters in a row the stock would probably double, but no one seems to believe that will be happening in the near future.

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