I understand that CMVT's products hit the sweet spot of Carrier spending - the ability to add services/applications that add revenue, but how much will they sell if the handset market replacement cycle isnt as high as expected. I believe they have to grow top line by 25% in FY 01 to hit the Streets numbers - but with the overall hadset market in unit volume growing probably less than 15% (470 million) - is this concievable? Will the company reduce future guidance? Comments please.
Just ignore all the useless comments, like you would a bum/beggar on the streets, and they will soon perish. They are only craving the attention, so don't give them any at all.
Why must you hide behind a new ID every post?
Lessens your credibility and makes you just another Spammer nuisance.
So sad it must be, to be you. Afraid and hiding from the world.
Peeking out every now and then, just to shout your messages of meaningless to the world.
Please keep posting ALOT, just so we can KNOW that you are still alive and okay. I'd hate to see that you killed yourself at such a disfunctional and disillusioned state of mind. What a pity that would be. You are such a sad example of what a human being could be. So sad. :-(
Good question. Unfortunately, for the Shorts, the answer is NO. CMVT's carrier equipment/software sales do not rely on handset replacement sales in any way. It relies on selling the new apps *capability* to the carriers, regardless of the number of people who actually use that service among the carriers end-user customers. It is the *number of new apps and equipment* that are MUCH more relevant than the growth of the *number of users* of any existing or future apps and equipment.
Think *building the highway* VS *being a toll collector*.... CMVT = builder, the carriers = toll collector. CMVT revenues are not "end-user dependent" that way. They get paid regardless of how dense the traffic is. That risk is taken/absorbed by the carriers.
Nice gig, huh? [Just think of Kobi as the "Israeli Italian", in the Tech/Telecom "construction" biz.] ;-)
Best Regards, and hang on for the ride!
My take on whether handset sales will appreciably affect CMVT's bottom line is, not very much. CMVT's earnings are based on people making phone calls. Whether they do it with a new handset doesn't matter just as long as they keep making those calls. If new toilet sales drop off, it doesn't mean that toilet paper sales will also be hurt.
Jack - thanks for the insight! But I am still confused- Does CMVT collect its revenue on a per call basis or per application sold? The point is that if the handset market slows more rapidly than expected (both in terms of new subscribers and replacement phones), that should affect the number of calls through less customers (reduced number of new subscibers) and through more lower tier phones in the market(due to a lower replacement cycle) that do not have CMVT's applications or have less applications associated with it than an upgraded phone would. Also how much of the premium price reflects the revenue oportunity of 3G - now that 3G rollouts wont happen till 2004/2005 as opposed to earlier estimates of 2003 wont that affect the premium?
Jack Great Post! The analogy (spelling-have not figured out how to use spell check on Yahoo message board - HELP needed) of sales of new toilets to the sales of toilet paper was outstanding. Keep up the good post. Thanks Lee (eom)
if they don't this quarter, wouldnt it be logical they will announce weakness in future quarters? is this company running out of cryptonite? believe me, no company, and i mean no company, has an infinite supply of cryptonite;