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VMware, Inc. Message Board

  • jcard71 jcard71 Sep 29, 2007 12:15 PM Flag

    My company just purchased $1 Million in Licensing from VMWARE!

    VMWARE is the only game in town, this company is only just starting!

    Anyone who shorted thios stock, SCREWED!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I bought cme @ 47 the day it ipo'd, sold it the next day for a $900 profit and thought I was a genious !

    • Yo jcard:

      Good post. Thanks.

      Rocky

    • horse,

      make the sell based on your comfort level. I truthfully have no idea whether this sells off tomorrow or in a year after another 50 point run-up. Since I have zero stake at this time, I have the luxury of waiting for a clear sign that will foretell future direction. Since I'm very uncomfortable on the long side, I will wait for the short opportunity.

      If you do decide to sell and the stock runs past your sell point remember Peter Lynch's comment - "I never made money on any stock I didn't sell". Making money on any pick is a good thing, even if you don't call the top.

      Another idea is to protect your long position with put options, you pay a small premium for that insurance but you can still go long that way w/o a ton of risk. In the end, do what you want to do - again, I certainly have no idea when this run ends.

      Good luck!

    • before any comment on the obvious, that goog wasnt around in 2000, I know that. I'm simply pointing out that AOL missed the real market opportunity for the internet. I simply am stating VMW's market may not be as big as everyone thinks - or another technology renders it less important in the future. The fact remains that VMW needs to grow earnings 50% for around 4 years to justify todays valuation, thats a long time to fend off competition in the tech space.

    • I didn't take your post as hostile at all. Actually thought it was well thought out and provides an intelligent response to my opinion. I won't rehash my position again today because we are just offering opinions to one another, just information that should be taken into account. Which side you pick should be your own best guess based on facts and intuition.

      Additional note nyc - my AOL comparison wasn't to compare this time to the crash of 2000. it was more to show competition sometimes comes from companies you least expect. AOL in 1999 was betting that serving content was the true future money maker. At the same time Google was taking a vastly different approach - they believed the real money was in advertising and created an engine that targeted internet users for that advertising dollar much better. They were right , AOL was wrong ...but in 1999 few would have taken Googles view vs. AOL's. Just some thoughts on the dynamic world we live in , one that promises to provide surprises to our best thought out plans.

      Your a bright guy, you know why you invest in a company, you diversify to spread risk, and in the long run I'll bet you'll be right more than wrong...all any of us can hope to be.

      Good luck!

    • As an enterprise Architect and investor, I understood exactly what you were trying to say Jcard. $1m is a very large single company outlay for software at times like these. Any such purchase in IT for some time had to be Oracle, or a very difficult to justify Server, or Network purchase.
      What your company has just done has found their way in the storm of crap that a lot of software vendors have been slinging for a long time, and the purchasing managers are like dogs who like to return to their same tree over and over.
      Once they finally read in several magazines that they are idiots if they are not doing VMWARE ESX on Blade Servers, then they come to your office and ask you why is it that you keep buying this other stuff. ROFLMAO. It's so funny, it nearly makes us cry doesn't it!
      Truth be told, I liken this point in time, to when people started talking about HTML, browsers, and the Internet, instead of Bulletin Boards that you had to know the phone number to dial-up to. LOL showing my age, but I was on AOL in 1992, when everyone else was on Compuware for technical board discussions, and no one really understood what I knew would happen with AOL, regardless how you may think of AOL as a product now, it had a profound impact on the whole introduction of America to the Internet, for the non-techies.
      So how much of this market is un-tapped and how large is it? I bet your company goes back to the trough for more to spend on VMW after they figure out the ROI from their VMW purchases. I imagine this is probably a POC (Proof of Concept) purchase.

      This thing is getting ready to bust wide open, and so are the company purses for ESX purchases. There is no way the lunacy can continue. 500 servers, or 150, they still just have 5-10 guys managing them, and the numbers there just don't work. Middle of the night weekends, during vacation. VMWare makes it much easier to manage however many servers you do have, virtually.
      Once you get over the initial learning adjustment, it's about the most comforting thing for a techie. Got a blade showing a predictive failure? Use VMWare to move it and seconds later place a non-critical call to your Blade vendor. No crisis. Now this is a real solution. MSFT has their head up their ass, and any solution they propose is self serving. I have learned that from one after another failed crappy quick to market so-called solution (Like MOM MS Operations Management, or Exchange and it's completely braindead non-brick-level restore "tool").
      The word is now getting out, and this is the thing that defies all the logic, or standard measurements like PE or EPS, or market share, or anything else. When Viagra was the only one, everyone was trying to buy it on the streets. VMWare is gonna be the same way. Techies in hiring interviews are gonna be asking "Do you have VMWare?" If the answer is no, I believe that's gonna be the end of the interview. Techies go where the stuff is that advances their career, and it becomes commonplace because of that phenomenon.
      Some people don't value this sort of information at the technician level. Anyone who really knows technology, knows this is how it evolves. At the technician level, not at the executive level, and not from a company quarterly report.
      BTW I made a lot of money off Yahoo AOL AMZN and others in the same way. Talking to colleagues.

      • 4 Replies to buyandby
      • Yes, thanks for that very good post.
        Speaking about Viagra did you know how it came about? The company that developed it was testing a blood pressure medicine and they had everyone keep a detailed journal of side effects, etc. The blood pressure medicine did not meet the end points and was not approved by the FDA. The company (I forget who makes it) examined all of the participants journals and noticed the side effect that gave them the idea to make Viagra instead. Not a bad miss huh?

      • Thank you for your very interesting posts. The implications are boundless. Has anyone written any white papers that you know of on the particular implications for future global power needs? Also for office space? Water needs and usage?

        Kalum

    • what a rookie...wow, your co bought a whole 1M large eh. Take a class in valuation. VMW's market cap is close to EMC's now and EMC revenues 13B, yes with a B to VMW's 380M, with a M. Love when you neophytes that know zero jump on the free ride to riches. Thank you also in advance for your money :)

      • 2 Replies to u_all_r_nuts
      • They tapped only 6 percent of the market that is available----have a 90 percent share.....their adjusted pe for growth into a market they own is conservatively between 8 to 12 right now--- earnings at peak are conservatively debated by analysts to be nearing 3.4 to 5 billion a year---look at the current market cap------------------street gives room to growth stocks to maintain current pe's in the 100 for years ----look at ea....but the shorts don't read reports and hedging on unrelated examples like vonage this year---let them lose and then they will learn a lesson that will improve their future judgement.

      • They tapped only 6 percent of the market that is available----have a 90 percent share.....their adjusted pe for growth into a market they own is conservatively between 8 to 12 right now--- earnings at peak are conservatively debated by analysts to be nearing 3.4 to 5 billion a year---look at the current market cap------------------street gives room to growth stocks to maintain current pe's in the 100 for years ----look at ea....but the shorts don't read reports and hedging on unrelated examples like vonage this year---let them lose and then they will learn a lesson that will improve their future judgement.

 
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