generate profits to offset their billions of losses in mortgage backed securities, loans, and subprime, and RE related investments.
Companies who were the first few to slide ahead of the broad selloff
1) FFIV dropped way before CSCO's earnings
2) dropped after earnings and cause the whole market selloff
3) TIE drop almost 2 point and 7 % this morning ahead of the broad selloff
4) BIDU, SOHU, JRJC, AAPL, and GOOG went into selling mode
5) then everything else along with VMW started to drop from 91.50 all the way to 82ish and recover to 86.75 and then back all the way down to 76.55, then recovered to 80.75 before closing.
The purpose of sharing this info with you longs is that, once you see FFIV, TIE, and CSCO started recovering follow by GOOG, AAPL and BIDU...that would be your confirmation of a recovery/ bottom.
While everyone on this board thought that the ORCL VM news caused the VMW selloff at 1:30 PM EST, I was the one who called and psted that this was indeed a broad market selloff.
my theory to this selloff?
1) Hedge funds have been hit hard by their investment in subprime and mortgage backed loans, thus...this is indeed a well organized and orchestrated selloff by institutions to further help hedge funds to make some profit shorting through this planned selloff. Which extends last week's selloff and totally caught everyone off guard, except all the institutions and fedge funds we are in on the scheme.
2) Institutions in return receives a bargain hunting opportunity to buy for all the new money sitting on the sidelines through 401K, and make money through trading and management fees
3) perfect opportuntity to promote and accumulate great performance stocks at a bargain price, and then do a little window dressing towards the end of the year asset reallocation and blah blah blah.
Who is getting screwed? individual investors through 401k accts or individual brokerage accts. unless you have been shorting.
I for one had the opportunity to short and hold my position till the end of last week. where as institutions and MM were trying to pump up all the stocks and gave us a scare for our money and short position. then found themselves out smarted by individual investors with reserved funds and not willing to let go of their short positions. Thus, majority of hedge funds did not have the opportunity to take back their short positions and had to wait for today to gather all short positions and dump the whole stocks market on us for one last time.
I suspect that the market will trade mixed at opening cause some bad stocks still needs to be dumped further, but good stocks like VMW already experienced a great deal of dumping today and in AH trading.
Thus, great stocks like VMW will gap up and trade up through institutional buying and run up due to window dressing.
While other bad stocks will get weed out before the year ends.
SO...check out TIE, FFIV, and CSCO for signal of recovery confirmation. and then VMW...BIDU, GOOG, and AAPL to follow suit.
bottomline...fuck MM fuck Institutional investors and hedge fund managers, fuck the whole wall street for taking away VMW's shine.
time to buy buy buy and ride ride ride back to 83...85...89...87...93...97...back to 94....then 97....100...104...108...back to 104...107...112...109...115...120...125...118...125...130...135...and beyond
Good luck to all
the institutions sell the gain and buy the pain
you are either a trader and scalp your profits, or you are going for a roller coaster ride with this and the others
personally I believe GOOG, BIDU, APPL, etc., got ahead of themselves, ditto the solars..what a joke...let's not forget some of the China stox too
Graham would be rolling over in his grave with these
shorty, i'm not in the industry, as you are, but i have suspected the kind of manipulation you describe. a few weeks ago, when apple and vmw both took unbelievable nose dives in 5 minutes... it was obvious the fix was in. Apple went from 166 to 152 - I couldn't believe what I was seeing. VMW tanked too. It was obviously a play (successful) to take out investors' stop losses. OBVIOUSLY. this is a game played by big boys, and little folks better be careful.
thanks for your posts.
I will rejoin you guys again when VMW drops lower. I just can't stand another selloff w/ me missing the opportunity to saving my profit for the fourth time.
I am happy VMW came up big for us all we all have expected.
total profit from trading VMW...I cannot even count and don't have to count cause I am just grateful for being here riding this with yo.
Just be very careful now cause market went up a few more points while VMW drop from 91 high
best of luck to yo
Have been in the investment/ hedge industry for 7 years. Taking a break from it way beofre the subprime turmoil because many of us saw what's going wrong with the hedgies.
NO consistancy in performance!
too many crooks
too many risk
not a whole lot of due diligence cause money kept on pouring in and majority of the big name managers got lazy and end up hiring lazy ppl to over see daily operation while money and time is spent entertaining clients and themselves.
Thus...you see this shit whole of subprime turmoil.
My partner and I are thinking of restarting a hedge fund ourselves, but not until we have done our due diligence and perfected our strategies and system.
Till then...I am just having fun managing my own fund and enjoying sharing my 2 sense with you.
Just the other day I had several fund managers came by to my place and I show them my performance over the past few years since I left the industry and I even show them all my trades in realtime.
They were shocked. They immediately want to retain me to work for them and pay me 10% fee. I rejected their offer onsite cause:
1) me don't work for ppl
2) me get pay 100% for the good work that I done for investors
3) me do extensive DD and offer my proven and time tested strategy to ensure preservation of clients investment and objective above everything else.
4) the strategies I am using may fail over time and show inconsistancy in performance.
5) nice meeting them thou.
anyhow...good luck to you
Don't get too excited when VMW jumps 5 to 6 points tomorrow cause the market is close behind and ready to ruin any party.
That is why I am ready to sell my 5000 shares at 82 for some quick profit and to limit my downside risk. and leave the other 5000 shares to ride with you, so that my money is where my mouth is.
If the trend and momentum is not with us, I may even be forced to sell all 10,000 shares at 83.22 just to break even and pick up VMW again cheap.
but I can tell yo this...with a stock that can move up 12 points or down 12 points like VMW. I can very well end up chasing new highs after I sold at break even. that has happened to me, too many fucking times. hahaha
I admit...I am pissed off at myself for not selling all shares, but what the heck. what's done is already done and I am sure we can all come up a winner and have fun riding this VMW.
GO VMW. Gap up tomorrow morning if my theory on the selloff scheme is correct.
Let us longs shine tomorrow along with VMW.
good night all. me going to have some ice cream and then sleep sleep.
pls...no one deserves to lose their slept over this cause this is just stock, not all your life. if your wife comlaints or threaten to get a divorce. tell her that I said, "work the system, don't let the system work you to the bone."
Tell the banks to fuck off because they are the ones who caused all this turmoil in the RE, mtg, and stk market. tell your wife...be with me for 7 to 10 years and you will be debt free and making mad love to each other and have more babies and feed off the welfare system cause if I am paying the taxes for it and our friends acrossed the boarders are taking every advantage of it by having more ninos, we might as well have more of our own grincos to prevent having a mexican president before we have president hilary clinton or president obama mama.
hahaha...my shit is getting racist now, but just treat it like a political joke and don't take it too personal.
If this is a manipulation, my question is which way it is going. Option expires this Saturday. We have 2 scenarios:
1) Institutions sell November calls and December puts. If so market will continue trend lower this week or even into the end of month. Any rally will be fake and followed by more sell-off.
2) Institutions sell November puts. Then big rally this week.
I guess this affects everyone: when is the bottom to jump in?
some interesting observation, when market is in a up trend, good news keep coming out, when it comes down, one bad news after another. It is like the Borg race from Star Trek, Wall Street and Senior Management of these hot companies are collective bond. :)
you got that right.
collective bond, thus we longs needs to stick together like kowala bears to the tree or even stay connected like sinese twins
fuck MM...fuck II...fuck hedgies...fuck banks...fuck all the RE investors who gone over leveraged...fuck all that is involve in the selloff scheme...
Hey you know what...if you guys are on margin and credit cards... fuck the banks by not paying your credit card bills.
let that shit hang dry for 7 to 10 years and you will be back brand new again. hahaha....but don't do it for a mere few thousands thou. max out your credit cards and HELOC and MTG with hundreds of thousands in loan and convert that debt to green hard cash and stash under your trust worthy cousins name and let it sit for 7 to 10 years and you will be back brand new.
Fuck...I cannot do it cause I got too many houses in affluent neiborhoods that is worth millions. Plus...me not a credit card guy, but I encourage yo to do it, just to get back at them crooks/ banks.
take advantage of the system while yo still can. fuck highly leverage RE investors are doing it acrossed the country and they are all making all of us, especially me with good credit and mortgages to pay. I pretty much pay for the bank to stay alive while they bail out bad credit subprime RE investors.
So fucking unfair. so do it for me and take advantage of the system and just tell your banks. "blame it on yourself for causing the subprime turmoil that fuck me up in the stock market and thus I am fucking you back.
if you had several brokerage accts with Scottrade, TD amtd, Etrade, and fidelity. they all told me the same shit on Friday and today...no shares available to short, while a week or two ago...there were plenty of shares to short
and then came last tuesday and wed. hard to get shares online and had to call broker to alloacte shares
And bang...no shares available and bang...comes the selloff 1, selloff 2, selloff 3
what a fucking coincidence, don't you think?
then JP morgan chase, Citi, Bear sterns, B of A, announced about their subprime bailout plan, which includes hedge funds and other institutions needing to come up with their required minimum funds to qualified for addition bail out plan from the big four.
So where do you think the hedgies can come up with their fucking money when they are already broker ass.
They orchestrated this 1 2 3 selloff and rape us from our wealth and come up with the required funds for more bail out money.
wham bam thank you man
bunch of wall street crooks pisses me off
amyhow, they better give all of us our money back through window dressing through the end of the year. or there will be investigations and law suits lining up
wrong, there is no time premium to by in novemember, compared to december. So they bot cheap puts and sold the hell out of it taking critical support lines.
if shorty is right, we should see confirmation by trading upwards tomorrow and starting take by that support we cracked.
I tend to agree with his analysis. Very nicely done shorty!