Mark my words, VMW is the next Google. I am a technical person who uses VMWare products since 2003. The virtualization market is the name of the game. 10 servers cost 50K while 1 Server + VMware cost 10K and able to run 10-12 servers cheaper and more effectively. It's simple math. Soon everyone will understand and stop buying metals.
As far as the day trading, the traders know it is a great & safe stock so they keep shorting it when ever they can.
Still it is a great investment for the short as well as the long run. I can promise you.
Microsoft is far behind, the only way to catch-up is to buy VMW. By the time MS will have the same product VMW will be embbeded in servers core.
Cisco, Intel & EMC, knows there business, so does CITRIX who bought XEN.
VMW is the future.
I read your note.
Its an agravation that someone would fear you and I so much that they try and distort the messenger by posing as you. I cannot fix that problem and have since put them on ignore. They or he must really fear what you and I have to say! I just leave them go, initially more people made the mistake, but have since figured it out. Those who never figured it out, well that is their problem not mine. The key is to let it go, because their reason is to draw attention to them, something they crave, but as I like to say it changes nothing.
Have a wonderful Holiday.
nycman, thanks for the kind words and adding to the value of this board.
That's the true value of these boards - a diverse audience and exchange of ideas. We can all learn from each other, but only if the exchange includes the information to support the statement.
Unfortunately, not everyone on this board shares view.
Keep up the valuable dialog.
I too am a professional technologist/ ametuer investor, and I absolutely agree that VM is the future, there is no doubt. any company that is not running VM's by this point is literally wasting money..sort of like running the ehat with the windows open. I also agree the typical wall street guy has No idea what they are talking about when it comes to technology. The people I knew who bacame brokers did so because they couldn't get accepted to the police academy, or community college. I am always amazed that people actually trust them with their money...most did not even go to college, can't provide a historical perspective on anything.
Back to my point- as a guy with a Collage Degree and a masters in information system and a long career in IT, YES- VMW is definitely the next big thing in computing. We are already there, and it is expanding daily. It is not perfect, and defitely presents some challenges, but like windows 3.1 eveolved into XP, we'll see similar techlogical leaps and applications with it.
It really works, I can send you a screenshot. I've been using VMWare product since 2003 (ESX, GSX, VMServer & WorkStation). If you configure things correctlly it works perfectly + when the load is to high to handle VMWare can automatically move a live server to another w/out shutdown nor loss of tiny bit of information. This is truely amazing product.
that's "1 Server + VMware cost 10K". you need to learn how to read.
a 2.0 quad core + 8gb ram + SAN easily runs 10 VMs serving 50-100 local users and a lots of web visitors. maybe not 10 database servers but something like
2 domain controllers
1 exchange server
2 database servers
2 web servers
1 file server
1 backup server
1 other server hosting office communicator, share point stuff
you may still have 30% free CPU cycles to spare.
traders and inverters don't know sh!t about the tech. they buy google and apple because they use them everyday. pull some1 off the street and ask what's virtualization. They will tell you you are on drugs. we know vmw is good, so bank our money in and wait for the next earning report, and the next one, next one...
i'm on the same page. I will keep buying vmw and reap rewards after Jan. and future as people are shocked and amazed at their earnings qtr, after qtr, after qtr, etc. and they'll still have no clue what vmw does.
to say that people on the street don't know shit about vmw and virtualization is an insult and a tremendous understatement. people on the Street are crimininallly dense sheep, and don't know a rectangle from a square, much less anything else more complicated. They will see revenues explode, then buy more vmw stock. they have no idea what is coming.
It's not a secret that VMW has a great product, I don't even think anyone disputes that. We dispute the valuation of this stock, particularly relative to it's parent company EMC.
The problem comparing it to Google is the TAM. Billions of people need to access information multiple times per day and they make money off the volume of ad clicks. Tens of thousands of people buy servers that need virtualization. The market just isn't that big despite the $10B Gartner claimed by 2009. I've been told they are better historians than fortune tellers.
I also find it interesting that you claim the world needs a fraction of it's current servers by using VMW. Would you then short INTC, who holds a stake in VMW and whose profit is mostly derived from high-margin server sales? I haven't heard any industry analysts write about a negative shock to server demand.
Much has been noted about the IT market, but this is not the only market where virtualization plays well. And while not saturated (or saturated as some posters have stated). There are other markets.
Development organizations for one are large market for virtualization. These are the companies or departments who develop sofware or applications as a product / service. They (we, I'm in development) rely on virtualization to improve our development costs and reduce development time.
We use virtualization for the development and testing of software in environments with minimal hardware or setup costs. We create and test on virtual networks. Our clients and servers can quickly be configured, and reconfigured, and/or saved and restored to known states.
Entire environments are saved and replicated so other can see and use "our" environment, reducing or eliminating comments such as "well it worked on my system" or "unless you can replicate it, we won't fix it."
We've also decentralized the development environment by using virtualization. This allows developers to access their development environment from any location and be 100 % productive. Other tools, like remote desktop or VNC are far too limiting.
So my money is on VMW. While their competition is trying to virtualize an environment, VMW is beyond that and virtualizaing the way I work.
Server & CPU producers, will not be hurt by VMW - actually they will sell more, since next generation processors will have vmware software embbeded w/in the hardware - ie: CPU.
Of course they are affraid, thai is why they (CSCO, INTC, EMC) invest in VMW, to stay in the picture and make neccessary adjustment that will not hurt sales.
Just imagine you actually do not need to purchase a Cisco switch, you can virtualize it (A good switch cost ~2K) VMW ofeers as many vSwitches as you need; Same goes for memory & many appliances (NAT routers, Firewalls, etc.)
"I also find it interesting that you claim the world needs a fraction of it's current servers..." - I'll explain, most servers do not utilize more than 10-15% of their power (along the day - 24 Hours). VMWare actually increase utilization at least 4X more + plus protecting the Environment by using less resources.
One last thing, it is great to have a discussion like this with people like yourself.