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VMware, Inc. Message Board

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  • jamiejz jamiejz Jan 29, 2008 1:31 AM Flag

    this is rediculus

    Dear, first of all, you cannot call VMW numbers "sustained". it is a brand new public company with only 2Q of history.

    Second, everything has a fair value, no matter how good the company or product is. $40 Billion for a company yet to report a full billion dollar annual revenues (before today) was/is simply NOT SUSTAINABLE.

    And most important: VMW did guide for 50% rev growth but that included deferred SERVICE revenues. And based on that, it looks like VMW will only have 30% in license growth (read the transcript or my other post). For a GROWTH s/w company, license revenues is what DEFINES GROWTH.

    SO NO WAY, ANYBODY WOULD WANT TO PAY 30-40x SALES for a company growing just 30%. EVEN for a company growing 100%, 30x-40x SALES is RIDICULOUS, COZ IT (100% growth) IS SIMPLY NOT SUSTAINABLE. And in case of VMW, it came to light in just 2Q of operation as a public company.

    If you want to look at similar growth companies AND CHEAP look no further than GOOG AND AAPL.

    VMW at $61 is STILL VERY EXPENSIVE. With just 30% license growth, you can only give it 4-6 SALES multiple and that would be around $6-$7 billion. That would equate to VMW around $18-20 tops.

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    • I don't know what you are reading, but if you read the transcripts "look in yahoo headlines". VMW is good enough to give you comparisons all the way back to 2006, this starts through out the first couple pages of the transcripts. We know they were not public then, but it is good business of them to show you clarity and if you look at the numbers you will see "SUSTAINED" growth all the way back to their private days up to the present NOT JUST FROM THE IPO.

      Next ---- go to page 4 of the transcripts where MR. MEEK makes the statement of 50% revenue growth.

      So I'm not sure what you saw, but its very clearly stated.

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