well, i have puts. i think their business model is broken.
For those of you that are investors, you have only seen this company for less than a year as a publically traded company. For those of us in the IT world that were playing on their desktop edition once the days of DOS had ended to continue to use legacy apps have known about this company for a very long time.
My company is one of the last to adopt any technology. We are always last to the show, never first, never mainstream, always last. That said, we just virtualized our environment (about 20 servers). If we are doing it, then this dog has already run.
That is always the case for our shop. Virtualization isnt new, it isnt cool now, now its just the late adopters.
In my 15 years of investing, I have learned you just cannot look at how cool a company use to be, you have know how cool its going to be. And there is nothing new and cool coming from vmware. That means it is done.
"You don't need a mainframe to run UNIX."
No, but you'd be foolish not to use one or at least a RISC based system. SCO makes an x86 based UNIX, but it's market is so small it's invisible.
When referring to UNIX systems, people in the industry are _not_ referring to Linux. Although it's UNIX based, the term UNIX is reserved for RISC and mainframe based systems. Linux is referred to as Linux. And VMware can virtualize Linux on x86.
"I'd be scared to use a bank that uses Windows for their servers"
Are we pretending the x86 market is small? Or non-essential? Check with Gartner group.
Many banks do use Windows, and run well enough. Many companies use a RISC based system for Enterprise Resource systems, and x86 systems to support all the other tasks such as sales, marketing, HR, etc. And all those other tasks _are_ critical. The company can't run without them.
One bank in New Zealand uses MSDOS for their teller applications. When the teller desktops need to be replaced, and Windows XP didn't run their particular application, they had to turn to VMware Workstation in order to upgrade the teller systems. These are the systems the tellers use to do your deposits and withdrawals. I would consider those mission critical.
Finance, Banking and Insurance was the first sector to embrace VMware for server consolidation. Be afraid of how they trade with your money, not Windows.
"Do you think that VMotion is an impossible feat for other companies to make?"
No, I've been around too long to think things are impossible. I do know that the only virtualization product to come close to doing VMotion is Xen, and it doesn't do it well or safely. MSFT doesn't have it, and can't say when they will.
"You're only on top for a little while.. "
Microsoft has been on top for over a decade. IBM has been on top for decades, Compaq/HP has been the top seller of x86 systems worldwide for over 8 years, with a few lost quarters to Dell. You're on top as long as you can stay on top.
Others have created OS', but none had the business savvy of MSFT. So they stay on top. While VMware is on top, it would be logical to profit from that.
What will you do if they beat earnings next week?
I would guess you would know better then.
Just because a technology is cool, it doesn't meant that the company is going to be a big financial success..
The software isn't bad. but the company is a joke, and completely overvalued.