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VMware, Inc. Message Board

  • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 26, 2008 11:15 AM Flag

    technicals, BULLISH

    the very first thing that sticks out for me when looking at teh chart is the fact on earnings day, the stock pullback after the ER. it gapped up then sold off, filled the gap now its fully recovered and back to the high of the gap On ER day.

    the day before ER we saw higher then average volume, on ER day we saw higher the average volume.

    BUT we saw support from the gap filling, and now back up.

    this tells me, the stock wants to go up, it didnt get sold off and sold down further.

    theres resistance near 72ish and again near 84ish.

    i dont split hairs, youll see the resistance when the stock approachs those prices.

    i dont know alot about the fundamentals or if they guided higher or flat, or didnt guide at all?

    i dont know if the naysayers have given up and accepted VWMs dominance in the sector, what i have often found with new products or disruptive technologies, is all the negatives by analysist like saying the IPOD will get competition and drive down margins, that kinds thing is normal and has drag on the actual stock prices, until analysist finally realise even with competition, VMW will remain the leader with out harming margins, but im not a fundamental trader, im purely techincal.

    right now, the technicals say BUY!
    the OBV has risen nicelly, other traders will see what im seeing and will enter the stock, fund mangers will load up as well given the prices are fairly low, NOW is when you want to enter, before the BIG VOLUME comes in, let the fund managers drive the stock WHILE YOUR IN IT!

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    • Only 1 thing to remember Tommy is a pais shill ID.

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 29, 2008 12:22 AM Flag

      no, i study charts full time, and trade only when i get a chance to focus on it, like today. i had to exit a trade going south, i bought VMW,SNDA,SINA.

      all three picks were late entrys, but they still ran up, i took to long to exit my other position so these three were trucking up, so i kept selling one to buy the others gradually, once i had my full position, i got too cocky, i started screwing with my new iphone, i was in side then outside, back and forth, talking to tech support all while i had three good trades running. i watched everything keep going higher and higher.
      wow, when you get late mornings spikes usualy i find the rally doesnt fade it keeps going, all three went south on me and i gave back all my gains, i think i was up 30% on all three. just becuase i took my eye off the ball, just because i was too confident that they would all keep running.

      those winners, turned into losers.

      that sucks.

      thats the problem with options, you need to keep in mind, time is not on your side, its easy to treat them like stock, but when it pulls back, the price and time nail you hard.

      anyways, small potatoes, tomorrow is another day and i think the direction on VMW at least is still up..
      SNDA, up
      SINA up.

      but the chinas i think will be pulling down again befor the next pop up.

    • Thanks for clarifying. I understand your point. I've been guilty of taking a profit way too soon. I could have had a triple two weeks ago with the XLF calls, but I sold with a 20% gain. I sold even though the chart didn't tell me to. Same thing last week when I took a 10% gain with RIMM puts last week instead of a double! I'll get there eventually. Never been one to fail!

      Are you a full time trader?

      thanks again

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 28, 2008 6:46 PM Flag

      i understand what your saying, and everybody needs to find their over groove.

      im not saying to swing for the fences.

      what i am saying, is when you have a break out, and a perfect storm, take a look at the chart, see if theres any over head resistance lines approaching, take a look at the volume, if you see day after day after day of way above average volume, and no resistance lines over head, and great fundamentals backing you.

      this is a recipe, for letting your winner run wild.

      sure, not every rally will have all the things required for a real long up trend, aftre time, youll see the differnces, you will see why some rallys fail and some keep on chugging, and as you norice the differences, thats when youll feel better about letting her ride when all the rights things are lined up.
      you cant force yourself into a mold, and expect to only take profits at 2 points or three, being a good trader or investor requires alot of felxibility, and the ability to admit mistakes and move on, changing your mind or switching directions is a good thing, if thats what your trade requires for it to be profit able.

      conservative? yes id say dont blow your whole wad, use wise money management so you can stay in the game longer.

      but when you see the perfect storm, its time to double down with a bigger position.

      only when you see that storm.

      take a look at the EXM chart.

      look at that thing real hard, i saw the volume spike two weeks ago, got in on the third day of the rally and sold on the 6th day at 46 and change.

      made 200% on my calls.
      i went in with a very large position, becuase i knew what that much volume meant, i studyed that chart inside and out, and never has EXM had THAT kind of heavy volume comming off of a base pattern.

      i would never have made such a huge bet had i not thought it was not a perfect storm, the volume was immense.

      anyways. thats what i mean, youll learn!

      VWM i got in gradually, i had it on my radar last week before ER, and today entered as the morning developed.

      got a little cocky once i saw it running past 69, actually all three stocks i entered all seemed to take off this morning, than all faded back in late morning could have sold it, but feel confident they will resume there upward treks.

      good luck to you!

    • I understand your stance and in general I agree. You need to think like a winner to succeed in life. Doubting oneself is never a recipe with success. My point revolves around capital preservation. If a trader is too cavalier before they have a chance to hone their skills, they could end up out of the game watching from the sidelines. That's why setting the bar to high initially can be a bad things. A savvy investor that's developed a success gameplan should always shoot for the moon. A rookie needs to get in the game before they swing for the fences.

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 28, 2008 12:22 PM Flag

      get yourself some books and level 2 with intradday daily and weekly charting.

      i use trend lines.


      moveing averages, the 50ema, 200ema, 200sma. 350sma

      and the 8sma.

      i make sure the price is already above those lines, and pointing north, why throw in a bunch of resistance lines on top of you?

      if the stock has broken to the upside after bottoming, and has break out of the moveing average lines, then you can be fairly certian the trend back up has begun keep your eyes on volume, the more the better, high volume at the bottom is accumulation, extremly high volume aftre a huge run is most likelly, distribution, thats your signal to leave!

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 28, 2008 12:04 PM Flag

      regarding success, ask me that when im old and gray.

      i try to take each day at a time, even when i do great, like i did last week,

      becuase losses are gonna come, i think as long as im have a better understanding and more self control in my actions.

      thats a success right there.

      when i have a fat 7 figure income, then i will consider my self success ful, but only for a second, becuase i think in this game, success has to be won every day.

      even when you lose, it can still be a success, if you didnt lose alot.

      so yes, i guess im "becomming" success full

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 28, 2008 11:59 AM Flag

      THIS is what i see in VMWs chart, the past several months VMW was falling, even when the fundamentals were only getting stronger, last Q the stock fell, its taken this long to recover, they guided higher.

      this tells me theres a delayed reaction to properly valueing the stock.

      i dont do fundamentals, BUT i keep in mine the rest of the street does. so im just measuring their reactions thats all.

      right now i think they are playing catch up on value, right now i think alot of fears are setteled down now.

      VMW is more credible now.

      more confidense is growing for the technology and the stock is reflecting that, so IF FULL confidense was given to VMWs stock price.....what would the price BE?

      see my point?

      your buying when the market is finally accepting VMW as a disruptive technology.

    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Apr 28, 2008 11:52 AM Flag

      YES, ive been buying all morning.

      its now 2 hours and 15 minutes into the session and ive bought since the open.

      remember one thing, if the general population of begining traders burn out. then try something different?

      why limit your gains?


      give me, no give your self one good reason.

      think about this, the typical tradeing book, for beginers tells you to try for 2 points up and 1 point down, if it goes down set your stop for one point below a given price.

      if you do that too many times, can you see how much youd lose?

      i never use stops, i use mental stops and each one is based on what happening at the time, the price falling is not the same on two different days, falling on high volume is different the low volume, you wanna know how many times youll get stopped out and the stock take off right after?

      as long as your entry is sound, and the trend is up and the break out is up, odds are very high thye stock will run for more then two points, remember if theres volume involved, those managers who bought didnt buy just to park their money there, chances are they will keep entering and drive the prices of their initial shares higher in doing so, this catchs everybody attention and the rally ignites.

      think like a winner. dont be scared, fear will cause you to lose everything. you can have great trades, but fear will force you to sell a winner too soon, and fear will stop you from selling a loser too soon.

      i have to go for now, ill be back gotta keep an eye on things!


    • I meant to ask. Are you a buyer of VMW today based on your analysis? How does AAPL look based on yout strategy?

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