I can smell a desperate management team a mile away. VMware's management is desperate.
They are gearing up for an advertising campaign that will flush earnings down the toilet without expanding their revenue significantly.
The VMware PR machine is in high gear, while innovation is at a standstill and the company runs around like a chicken (or a Yahoo!) with its head cut off. Who's in charge their? Who is in charge of R&D? Who's the CEO? Does anyone know? Does anyone who gets a top level job there stay for more than 6 months?
VMware is a joke. VMW stock is a godsend to shorts even at $20.06 per share.
I will have to lower my 1-year target at this point, to $5/share.
Note my recent successes in predicting the downfall of stocks like GRMN (predicted $30/share about 1-year ago).
VMW is on death watch.
I see VMware as being dependent on a positive business outlook in general. As it is, we are facing, possibly, something worse than the Great Depression. It is also helped by high energy prices, which help sell VMware's products as "energy-saving."
When the pie is expanding, an innovative company like VMware can compete on the fine points of its technological advantage over its competitors. (the pie, as in the demand for virtualization software, and demand in general... the stuff that drives prices UP)
When the pie is contracting, and every business is scrambling to maintain day-to-day cashflow, the "long term benefits" of an immediate expenditure on, for example, virtualization software, don't make sense if you want to avoid bankruptcy. And when businesses DO make the decision to spend, they will focus more on PRICE, even with though they may suffer slightly from a lack of certain bells and whistles that, for example, VMware may have over Microsoft.
Microsoft has the cash to pummel VMware into the ground, if the antitrust police don't stop it. And currently, you may have noticed, our government has been more than happy to let any company get bigger if it can somehow prevent it from failing.
There is no bottom on VMW stock. I might buy it today at $5, but only for a short-term trade, and I wouldn't hold it through an earnings announcement. I believe VMW will continue to remain "expensive" even as the price falls and falls because the fundamental picture will continue to deteriorate and show the way to more declines in the stock. Only when the fundamental picture changes, or if there were a very rapid descent (50-75%) in the stock price, would I cover.
First of all, I'm not a short-term speculator since I have never shorted a stock in my entire adult life. I hold stocks I believe are good business propositions, so the current downturn won't really effect me since my positions don't need to be liquid. In fact, this downturn has given me a better ability to get deeper into tech companies like IBM and Cisco (both cornerstone tech stocks that I beleive will be around long after the rest of us are dead).
As for the rest of your post, thanks for the candor and the seriousness of the response (I'll just ignore the comment about my intelligence for now). My main point in almost all my responses on this board is that those who bash this stock only comment on it when it is on the slide, which admittedly it has been on for most of its post-IPO existence.
Not to be too beligerent here since you made an effort to be reasonable in your response, but what is your final price where this stock is no longer "overbloated"? As a growth stock (and it's still a growth stock since its revenue continues to grow in the 40% range), should we judge this company using the same fundamentals as larger companies like Microsoft?
The thing you short-term speculators don't get is that I'm here for the long term. If you don't believe me, take a look at my posts on ONT or GRMN board in recent years.
VMW is another grossly overbloated stock that will drop significantly. Yes, I'm sorry I did not come in here and post as the stock ran up 50%.
And no, I don't know who this alkgmhk guy is. He does seem to reply to all my posts on this board, but I don't believe he replies to my posts on other boards, as you can easily verfiy if you have an ounce of intelligence in you.
As for what stocks I recomment you go long, I would say pretty much none, if I had to pick one position.
But I have many positions, and my portfolio is weighted about 75% short and 25% long. My only long positions are MCD, WFC, and WMT, all of which are falling with the market, though not as much as most stocks. In general, all things being equal, I recommend you take all of your money out of any stock long positions.
Ideas for longs: must have low debt, first of all, and preferably a fair amount of cash on hand. Areas to look at: personal/home security (locks, safes, alarms, etc) is one idea, but I have yet to explore it much, also WMT and MCD and other stocks of companies that people who previously shopped at Guess?, The Gap, and Whole Foods (SHORT IT) will downgrade to.
The last time Mothra appeared on this board she predicted VMW would tank (it was trading at $19) and that the Dow would run up 1,000 pts (this was the week it dropped 1000+ pts).
Everyone knows these two aliases are the same person. It's best just to read the posts and laugh like I do.
As a fairly new investor/trader it cracks me up what people say/claim on these boards. I realize you have to take it with a grain of salt, but really? It seems that most of the posters are active traders attempting to interpret (or manipulate) stock prices based on no real science or knowledge.
If someone were to post calculations based on financial reporting, or had some other industry insight, that will lend them credibility. But it is usually just gut-based hyperbole.
The reason I am posting is becaused I invest in what I know (thanks motley fool). I understand investing is a different beast than trading, but the point is: where is your knowledge? Without real insight in the business, it is just gambling, right?
I have worked in IT for over 10 years, attended numerious conferences, groups, seminars, training, etc. Over that time you begin to develop expertise in those areas and companies. You begin to be able to predict and understand success in that particular market segment. No one ever seems to post about their actual experience with understanding what VMware is and how they impact IT.
The company I work for just helped VMW last quarter, as we dropped about $600k in Vmware licensing(not huge, but tangible). We are generally a pragmatic IT shop. Waiting until just the right time to leap. Our large scale server consolidation project is likely to resemble many other IT shops.
Now is the time when companies feel the squeeze of costs. IT must lower electrical cost, lower CRAC cost, less labor for server deployement, etc. Guess who wins? VMWare. As Microsoft enters the scene, things may get hairy, but currently at 90% market share, VMW is looking pretty good.
This is the type of analysis that I would hope would be discussed, as opposed to some hyperbolic judgement from an outsider about the senior management efficacy.
I also like CML and DDUP. I do not like EMC, they are on the outs, people in IT do not like how they conduct their sales group.
I got in at 19.80 and will likely hold for 1+ years.
Your feedback is welcome. Thanks for reading.
Would you care to comment on the current upwards vector of this stock now? Or are you going to let your butt-slave alkmdgh speak for you this time? (By the way, which voice to you hear inside your head when you respond to messages as alkmdgh?) So at what point in the next 12 months do you see VMW being valued at 1/5 its current price? Maritz has already set the lowered expectation and left the door open for poor performance, so what has to happen for the sheep to go bawing out the door and sell this down the river? Meteor strike on Wall Street, the coming of the Antichrist or the dissolution of the American political system? I think anything less than that won't get this down to $5/share.
Paul Maritz Industry veteran who ran Msoft's Windows franchise is the CEO. he understands what to do and how to take advantage of 90% marketshare.
Desperate..they just beat expectations and grew 32% in a horrible capex spending market..If any other SW company did that they would be front page news.
They are growing a 1.3B company over 40% (>1.7B) in the worst market ever..
VMW will be a major player in the SW world over the next 4 years, you should pay better attention.