wmw_to_200 you have a lot of assumptions here and seem to be expecting the earnings conference to be representative of the consumers reality.
vSphere 5 is not a major upgrade. It adds some welcomed features for the big boys but does little to nothing for the small and medium aside for huge increases for some and others would lose all room for growth they had.
Many customers have 3yr contracts that are supposed to cover support and future upgrades. They are all feeling that they are getting screwed by being forced to accept the new licensing model and pay for capacity while under contract and have coined it a memory tax.
Vmware's magic numbers that it will only affect 5% was 2% before the outrage which is a clear indicator that it was not based on any real world analysis but the assumption that everyone but (now)5% is below or equal to 5.7 virtual hosts to physical server. In reality this is closer to 12:1 for most organizations I have talked to.
Vmware is sneaky in bundling in other vmware products into the financial voodoo to make it appear all roses to the big investors. This is no secret and they have been blasted for this in the past.
Now do I think this is going to have any immediate effect in the stock prices?
Not in the near term as contracts are in place and change takes time but I foresee many future champions of Vmware products becoming champions for other vendors that are within reach to many as opposed to the elite few.
Not to mention a multitude of Xenserver, KVM, and Hyper-V proof of concept projects that will go on before contracts reach renewal dates in an attempt to reclaim lost TCO due to the abrupt pricing model change.
Time will tell but I do not know if forcing "the enterprise cloud" model is going to be widely accepted by anyone besides the cloud providers and the paid reports they sponsor.