Why I sold at 90 many months back. Real competition
Thanks for your info. equityrich. People on this thread will no doubt be po'd at you for telling a negative story because they are 'in love' with the company. I do not 'do that', I've been trading a long time and swear no allegiance to a stock. My take is based on about a 5 year weekly chart of VMW and I see some bad things which I will post from another post I just made today, and thanks again for your take:
There has not been a weekly fall like the one we just witnessed since 2008. As for the last 3 years, there's the 1st high in July 2011, then a higher high in April 2012, BUT, the MACD does NOT exceed the July 2011 high and now a breaking down 3rd peak that is almost surely the beginning of a major year over year decline. I'm not even going to go long this stock for quick trades. From here on in I'm just shorting if I see any strength at all.
Excellent observation. Also good advice never falling in love with a stock. I just dumped Apple after holding it for about 4 years. Average price under 200. Growth for 2013 now at 0%. Time to sell and redeploy cash and profits into better companies. Way too many people fell in love with this and want to hold on "hoping" for 600 or 700's. While possible you can probably get the percentage gain faster with the index going forward. Same with VMware. Love the technology as an IT guy but the reality is they are feeling the heat from the cloud as well as competition in the low and mid tier.
There are easier places to make money in the market.
I have one play that is pretty safe and very long term in nature. It might take 2 to 10 years to really get moving and depends a bit on global oil prices. Utilities will soon replace gas stations as plug in hybrids and pure EV's proliferate. More mfg's putting out great cars at better prices with many more coming. In a few years people will be filling up off the grid more and more. Huge tailwind for utilities like Duke Energy and Southern Company (I own both). Increased electric demand will be significant here. Won't go into it much more but keep an eye on this. If you buy now they pay you 5% to wait...
Good luck VMware longs. I'll be keeping an eye on the company and the space to see if things change but right now there is some rough sledding ahead for this one.
MSFT Hypervisor is definitely not a threat. No one runs their critical infrastructure on Windows (unless you are a freaking moron). Everything critical is Linux or a *nix variant. The only person I do see as a possible potential threat in the future is RedHat and their KVM hypervisor. RedHat has the corporate Linux infrastructure install base already with RHEL and CentOS (free fork of RHEL), so I could see corporations just sticking with a complete RedHat solution. However, KVM is no where near as complete as VMWare's offerings, so that is a long ways off (at least 5 years IMO). Also, I like VMW's investment into the mobile world and running vms on a phone so you can have biz/personal phone in one and not have to carry two phones around.