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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • michael966 michael966 Aug 20, 2012 12:19 PM Flag

    Jim Cramer, Adam Feuerstein, and other Motley Fool's

    Pumpers & Dumpers of this ilk are actually among the best indicators of stock trend. Plotting their articles and TV mentions against the backdrop of stock price is a useful way to time your entry into stocks.

    When price gets extended to the upside it is simple enough to use SAR stops, and several overbought indicators to lighten your load. However, in thinly traded highly volatile biotech stocks the entry points are a bit more hazardous because of these "short" allies like Motley et all. So, the typical indicators should be supplemented with these "hit pieces".

    Today is a good example. After spending a month selling off our highs all oversold indicators are pointing to buy including a fresh SAR flip with an exit below $3.60. Along the way we had a bogus computer generated "sell" downgrade which uses a one size fits all valuation model to rate stocks. Valuation models do not work in the small cap biotech industry. The only prevailing model is;

    1) Pray for FDA Approvals and Sparkling Trial results as you hold on to the seat of your pants.

    and

    2) Valuing the impact and market share of the pipeline as it makes it way through trials, patent, sNDA, NCE, and other sand traps.

    Ok, back to USING THE NEWS.

    I don't care so much what the "hit piece" is about, I just care about the stock reaction in relation to price.

    At overbought areas these stories give weak hands the flush (That is healthy).

    At oversold areas, these stories give clues to entry points. Today is one of those days as the stock is holding strong thus far against the backdrop of a laughable empty hit piece and a red day in biotech.

    It would seem that our month long downtrend is ending, and we are headed back to the upside.

    My important numbers are the rising 50ma @ $4.22, and the rising exit on SAR @ $3.60.

    Past the 50ma is the gap to fill back up to $4.66 with a road block at .50

    On a side note, I would look for Antares to be added to the Biotech-100 Index at the next re-balance as their growth continues to accelerate.

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