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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • koufax62 koufax62 Feb 25, 2013 5:13 PM Flag

    BRING IT ON !

    Zack's, short interest, and any other breathing member of civilized or uncivilized socirty!

    The game is now OVER and I finally have the long awaited opportunity to pile up shares without fear or hesitation and the reason is simple.

    The correction off the highs was driven by valuation. 600M MC was way too far ahead of itself too damn fast. The cash raise was at elquilibrium less a modest discount "at the time".

    So you had the PPS at the highs sitting @ 110M X 5.50 = 605M MC *(570M EV) vs 125M X 3.40 = 425M MC *(current 340M EV). Fully financed @230M lower enterprise value.

    Fundamentally sound and advancing the pipeline Q/Q. Filing mistakes? With all the experience gathered working closley with Teva all this time. Not a chance!

    Bring it on. It's slice and dice time at this level so do your worst or best depending on one's perspective.

    Koufax.

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    • Apologies to all for not answering or acknowledging the responses to my line in the sand post! The fact that I posted it when the MB was silent and bleak just happened to be by coincidence. What I posted is what I believed to be fact, NOT designed as a morale booster.

      At any rate, both the ap acceptance and the corresponding effect on the PPS is also pretty much what I expected. This importance of this event IS NOT to instantly bolt the shares well back above the 200 and beyond into the 4's, but to establish and solidify a floor under the stock price which it certainly has and will do.

      Next, we'll see a clearly defined basing pattern form with volume for the most part simmer to quiet levels on a daily basis featuring higher volume up days vs lower on mini pull backs until the "conviction buyers" charge back in breaking the stock back up through the 200.

      Earnings? I'm still not ready to assign dramatic importance slightly + or - off the estimates, not at this still early stage of Watson's marketing efforts and especially not at the current discounted state of the stock price.

      MTX estimates? Conservative? Probably because it fits into the typical PW modus operandi. Beyond the company's estimated peak opportunity there, let us remember the multiple avenues of revenue generating that we know of and what we aren't aware of " OFFICALLY" via Teva, Pfizer, or the next in line, in house product out of a myriad of possibilities.

      I'll leave that to the best at it like Loko, Jab, Shadow, BSV and everyone else doing deep search DD! Noble efforts by all!

      The trend is setting up for a reversal now and thats exactly what we want. What we don't want is for the stock to instantly spike above the 200 before the long termers finish accumulating only to have the PPS fall back down from day trading profit takers.

      Relax everyone, the clouds are clearing and better days are close at hand.

      PS, popular rotation play at this stage of the market rally is into biotech! Thats us and we're already discounted!

      Koufax.

      • 1 Reply to koufax62
      • Greetings Tappy, always good to hear from you! SHADOW,,,,,,just picked up your post re; non-disclosure of calling intermediate top. That is true and quite frankly, I thought at the time, high 4s looked to be a bit "stretched from a valuation standpoint".

        Now then, if I came on to this MB to urge profit taking at say, in the 4.75-5.00ish area, my call would have cost some folks which I don't like to do. It is well known that I like to add and liquidate "trading shares" around my "core position". As it turned out, I lightened up more than planned because of the unexpected (not expected by me) rise to the 600M MC plateau I did however maintain a long position that I rode down along with everyone else.

        So, being that I truely do believe in the long term prospects of the company, I will always be holding shares for the long haul. I don't like an "all in and all out" strategy and never have unless something critically negative unfolds to change my mind and I see nothing at all even resembling a #$%$ in managements business plan and direction. "Strictly a valuation call" at that time in addition to suspecting a "possible" dilutive raise of capital.

        Ironically, the last time I advised caution was prior to the BPAX fiasco. The tremors I was picking up was that the street was setting us up for an "over reaction" to negative news in order to steal our shares at an extreme discount. I was the only one that posted it and probably one of the few that DIDN"T lighten up enough prior to the news going against my own advise and the odds in order to defer a sizeable capital gains windfall into the following CY. 200K in profits wiped out in a blink Shadow but I held and recovered it all and then some.

        A similar scenario in your case and I fully expect that you also will fully recover and far exceed. It's just a question of time.

        Koufax.

    • Koufax, I don't know you but others here have said you are a welcome back voice, a respected poster. I love your conviction, taunting the dark side to bring it on! I have sold my home and plan to rent for the next several years. I will have $400,000 cash on Friday, it seems my timing to add more shares may be right. I am 64 years old, and cannot bear the thought of not investing heavily in shares of ATRS for my retirement. Call me crazy, but I've been in this stock now for a couple of years, and am convicted this is the biotech of least risk, for my money. I am also in APPY, which will gain more attention in coming months.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • yeah bring it on $3.36 I can guarantee you we will never go lower. Guarantee it man. We have great products and a great management team. Just don't compare us to other biotech companies like ACAD and KERX, just don't okay.

    • hb9702@ymail.com hb9702 Feb 25, 2013 6:55 PM Flag

      Koufax,

      how many are you planning to accumulate? Are you done buying or just starting?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to hb9702
      • I am very happy to see Koufax back - and positive. I respect his
        opinion. I respect mine so much that I don't need confirmation that
        I am right - but it is always nice to have from someone who has
        earned the respect of others here. I hope he becomes active.

        Well - today was sure miserable.
        Friday and this morning seemed like we turned around but it was
        a "head fake" and we went lower.

        Some here (and I plan to repost this on I-hub) seem to care about
        my opinions. Most of the time I love opportunities to buy things cheap-
        whether it be a suit of clothes, a car - or a stock and ATRS is "on sale"
        just like a brand new gleaming Corvette might be selling for 1/3rd of
        its sticker price -
        With one difference - with depreciation the "cheap" Corvette will only
        get cheaper- and ATRS with appreciation will multiply in value many
        times over.

        I have picked away at a few shares at these bargain prices - but
        I am facing a rather large tax bite in April and the maturity of a real
        estate loan -- and I have power dry to meet these obligations -
        If it wasn't for that I would put every available dollar I had into ATRS.

        When you have a situation where the value gets greater and the price gets
        lower - that is the positive perfect storm of investing and that is ATRS
        right now.

        I could site the imminent acceptance of the Otrexup application - the
        upcoming RBC investor conference - the news coming this year of approval
        of 10mg. Tev- Tropin- anyone who needs me to tell them of the benefits
        of owing ATRS has not been awake these last few quarters - so I need not
        repeat them.
        But this is my opinion - and I am sure I am right.
        Why is it down - who knows - but I can tell you it is for all the wrong
        reasons and the value which is several times toady's share price will
        carry the day.

        GOOD LUCK

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • koufax....if you are not already there.....get over to IHUB where bsav, ryman, jab, tappy etc are...we have moved!

 
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