Betting on one-drug biotechs is just that, a gamble. I think that's why some of us are so confident in our investment in ATRS. While there aren't the type of catalysts to double or triple the price overnight, you also don't have to worry that the stock will be down 50% tomorrow either. It's all risk/reward. There are no free lunches out there unfortunately. Some guys will hit the jackpot on an ACAD or KERX and start to overestimate their ability to pick winners. It just ain't that easy. Honestly, on a lot of these you would be better off shorting OTM calls into the catalyst. Of course that has its risks also, but assuming you're prudent with money management, it's a better strategy than over-concentrating your portfolio in these spec plays. Unless the data is superb with a solid trial design, you're just hoping.
As for AVEO's cash position, it means nothing because they're going to go through tons of it to do another trial. I believe their historical burn rate has been pretty high. At some point maybe there's value, but it's total speculation right now. Everybody is expecting a bounce, which tells me it might be headed right back down towards $2.
Just to add.The stock I mentioned above was not AVEO as Wallstslime keeps saying. I mentioned HK on this board and wrote a few pieces on their board. Earnings came out decent,but forward guidance killed the share price today.
what about AMRN? No trial risk, they are selling their product...stock in under pressure...
Even better, ATRS...big catalyst on horizon...Question is how it trades over summer doldrums. Might give a better entry, but don't want to risk being out...
I talked with J. Horwath yesterday. For those who don't know, he owns 506K shares. He is a vice president, but not an officer for fcc reporting purposes. He said he voluntarily discloses his position to bloomberg. Individual investors can call their broker to have broker check bloomberg to verify his holdings. Highest price buys he said 3.60's. He is 16th largest shareholder.
Otrexup first, QST next, third undisclosed product to be disclosed when patents lined up...hopefully within one year.