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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • rymankoly rymankoly Jun 13, 2013 7:41 PM Flag

    Just some trading observations..

    From February 14 until April 24, we were trading in the 3.5-3.6 area (with a few small spikes high and low).
    On April 25 we moved to the 3.8 area, until May 15th when we moved to the $ area.

    So when is the next move???

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    • Well Ryman, like I posted 6/13, what looked or seemed to be a reasonable possibility (a retrace back to the 200 after the rally off the lows) has still yet to materialize which is why I stated that I was beginning to believe that it isn't going to happen.

      At this point, of course, its all about the 200 because who in their right mind would swing trade the bulk of their position for the 50 at this point. I posted that I sensed a veritable mob waiting for the chance to jump on sizable lots near the 200 and it could be why it's turning out to be a NO GO! Forget about shorting and going long at the 200. Waaaaay to risky for minimal reward. Matusow has either really lost it with that starategy OR its all a ploy to fill buy limits 20 cents or so below todays close. Seems awfully silly to me, but thats just my take.

      So whats my take/play right here and now?

      Same as it was 6/13! Hold your shares and keep it simple or "at the fanciest", sell ONLY trading shares (10-15% of ttl position) on the next retest of overhead resistance which in itself could backfire because I really don't know which try the stock breaks through that resistance. The loss of a few trading shares can be categorized as expendable after all.

      PS, the strict buy and holders are fine here IMO. Nothing at all out there in the way of negative news to derail the new uptrend so also IMO, if you're long the stock that is the side to be on for sure.

      Greeting and best wishes to all!

      Koufax.

    • ryman,
      if we knew Wotton's stock dumping schedule it would help with answering your question...

    • Ryman, my take is that there are players waiting in the wings for a test of either the 50 or the 200dma and consequently, not only no inflows of cash into the stock, we are experiencing predictable profit taking on the run up off the YTD lows. The interesting thing though is that the stock has held steady during this consolidation period even in the face of some rough patches for the averages.

      I'm not exactly sure what to make of it other than it bodes well for the PPS when this current resting period is complete. The MM might be soaking up the shares being sold to build inventory for "funds intent on rotating investment capital our way" come the end 1H this CY as I suspect and hence no slide back to the 200dma.

      The answer is that I don't know if the moving averages will be tested before the stock springboards on high buy volume crashing up against overhead resistance @4.20-4.30 (hopefully break through it this go around) only that I'm pretty sure that is what we'll be seeing very soon.

      Koufax.

      • 2 Replies to koufax62
      • What one COULD make if the decent support the stock has above 4 is what whogo is saying, i.e. that it is being carefully distributed by an institution, and that any strength is sold into and any weakness met with support. Vanguard pops to mind, although that is a mere guess based on last Q.

        Even Zack's has suspended adding the stock to their strong sell lust every 3 days, which in an of itself was indicative of something weird, though I don't know what.

        Institutional interest, up to last report, was lukewarm at best and essentially stagnant - as is the stock.

      • koufax62

        I think you know I greatly admire and appreciate your posts -
        I wish you were here more often - -

        I believe in your most recent post - you are merely suggesting the
        strategy of some investors based on technical indicators... I want to
        comment.

        From what I know - many here are a long term investors and regarding
        your post about the 50 and 200 day Moving averages - I know they
        can influence share price movement in the short term -
        But in my experience, over time, fundamentals always trump technical's
        and the fundamentals of Antares are great and have never been better.
        Also news can greatly override any technical indicators - and we are
        (at least I am) expecting significant news throughout the balance of
        this year.

        So (not being a trader in the stock) I pay very little attention to the
        technical's - and I think anyone using them to fine an entry point to buy
        or add to stock positions can be left out in the cold - if news propels
        the stock higher - and those on the sidelines are denied an opportunity
        to buy at these prices.

        There well may be a pull-back - but I think we risk maybe 20- 30 cents
        on the down side and stand to make several dollars on the upside - and to
        wait is "penny wise and pound foolish".

        In any event - GOOD LUCK

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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