He never mentions that a lot of people can't take oral MTX due to the side effects. Taking MTX by IM or SQ reduces the side effect profile & delays the conversion to more expensive biologics. "Despite its advantages, injectable methrotrexate is rarely prescribed, mainly because it requires a weekly visit to the doctor's office. " The reason its never prescribed is because you have to go to a doctor for a IM injection.
There's plenty of trial data showing the advantages of SQ vs oral that ATRS can use when promoting the drug. Please look at the ATRS investor presentation for a few of the studies.
"Insurance companies could be slow to accept Otrexup because it will cost more than generic methotrexate, even if biologic therapy is delayed." What is he talking about that insurance companies may not be interested in a cheaper product. Otrexup saves money who cares if generic MTX is available?
"And don't discount the opposition marketing that will rain down on Antares from Abbvie, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson if they feel like their blockbuster biologics are being threatened." This is exactly what ATRS wants. ATRS drug beats these guys on price & there's no efficacy advantages with biologics.
Well whogo.... there was one comment that was right on... "Antares is not particularly transparent when it comes to sharing details of its drug development activities with"
Whogo, as for the biologics..... they all know MTX will be used before biologics and along with them, as noted in the conclusion of the EULAR conference were ATS presented the MTX data, in Germany....
"Not only do the new EULAR recommendations place tocilizumab and abatacept on the same level as the TNF inhibitors, the EULAR draft further singles out tocilizumab as the "preferred agent" for patients who must receive a biologic DMARD as monotherapy rather than the preferred way, in combination with methotrexate. "Preference is given to combining all biologicals with methotrexate," Dr. Smolen said. The revision also cites rituximab as another biologic DMARD to consider, but it’s not ranked as high as the others."
What we really need is for insurance companies to back the stair step approach. MTX oral - MTX injection - biologics. Adam fails to mention that MTX - SQ via pre-filled syringe is widely used in the EU. Once Otrexup is introduced in the US market then injection use in the US should see similar gains.
Not a bad Feuerfacts rebuttal Whogo, not bad at all!
He actually might be doing us a favor though. I've been posting technical thoughts back and forth with Ryman and the gist of it is that I just know there are heavy hitters lurking down around the (200DMA/3.78) double support area that by now are getting "pretty flustered" waiting for their chance to buy on that dip.
The way I figure it, overhead resistance @4.20-4.30 is a very tough nut to crack and we can probably accomplish it when those guys get what they want. The bottom line is that AF "couldn't" do a typical hatchet job on the stock because the cred of his analysis would be dismissed totally. So it's still the same story IMO, the buy on the dip crowd in hiding will sooner or later have to make a decision to raise the bid to the rising 50 signaling that the towel is thrown in for the 200. In any event, we need them!
The article does have the appearance of a helping hand for those anxious to acquire on the dip "that just ain't happening",,,,,,,,,,,,,,so far anyway!
Have a great one everybody!
I personally think that Adam did an ok job considering that he is Adam. What I mean by that is that the article did raise some negative points, but not nearly as many negative points as he would typically raise with other stocks. I agree with you that it did appear to be superficial.
I've been saying for months Otrexup is not a slam dunk like many on here presume. This point really brought this home " What's missing from these studies are data correlating higher blood levels of drug to better outcomes for patients. Antares has no efficacy data in rheumatoid arthritis comparing Otrexup to either oral or conventionally injected methotrexate. The company is assuming FDA will simply infer clinical efficacy of Otrexup from the precedent set by "regular" methotrexate.
Now, Im long ATRS but there are some questions going into the FDA's decision. Another thing has ATRS started to compile a sales team? These points made by ADAM may be why.