dont listen to these bozzos on this board... its not price manipulation... no one is interested in an old drug... not even atrs mgm.... not before approval, not after approval... its not a miracle drug. Otx needs alot of work to prove to investors it's existence in the market and that will take quite some time and no guaranteed it will be profitable as there are many competitors out there..... atrs may surface the water to get some air here and there but it will always go back down until they man the fk up and do something about it.
There is so many reasons but the main thing is that the stock got ahead of itself. The analyst estimates show a loss for 2014 so there's not much interest & its hard to get excited about the stock when the company operates under a veil of secrecy. If you believe the company is going to get bought out, sales estimates are to low, or they'll announce a big partnership soon then its a buy. On the other hand, If you believe the company is going to muddle through like they've done the last few years then watching from the sidelines is a good play.
i think last year, ATRS got way ahead of itself... i think for the present, we are lagging. not a lot, but 10-15%.
nevertheless, i guess our fair value is somewhere between $4 and $5... with planned monthly sales at over $4's for the insiders, and an insider selling out at FDA decision day at around $5, one can make a reasonable argument that even the management sees our fair value somewhere between these 2 numbers...
until more clarity comes ... this is a better trading stock than buy and hold...
buy now and sell in the mid to hig $4's..... for rest of year perhaps? who knows
Really the company does not have to do much to be profitable. Its ex ante projections are for about $150 million peak sales of Otrexup and this does not include the revenues from its remaining pipeline. The company has over $80 million in cash and investments. It also has a low cash burn an no debt. It only have to do about $15 million in Otrexup sales to profitable and to add to its cash coffer. Anything over this amount will be a retained earnings blessing for shareholders. This current price action is the called a trading veil, meaning that a few short traders are trying to pull the wool over shareholder's eyes. With over 20 percent of the float shorted ( to include written calls and bought puts), shareholders can expect them play every trick in the book to cover their shares. They really want to keep the stock price below $5 because this is the beginning breaking point for them.