Good luck to you!
I have to admit that I'm a little puzzled by your move, but you call them the way you see 'em!
The puzzlement is driven primarily by the fact that the upcoming Q call is by far the most meaningful in years and beyond the FY '13 finale, every earnings call there after will be significant events. This has been a long time coming and to finally get to this point to say your farewells IMHO is baffling.
You know me well enough to realize that if the PPS was right now bumping up against the multi year high or even north of it, I could certainly understand profit taking upwards of 50% position and then reassessing post 4Q call. That makes sense! What doesn't is that you made this call with the shares .18 north of the 200 dma?
I'm going to let you and the MB in on a glimpse of what I do in the bio space.
It resembles a barbell type strategy. Antares is the overweight on the left side (remember my posts imploring the importance of buying heavy under the *200 dma) on the right is cash and a basket of "de-risked" bio plays that are constantly " in flux".
We'll use the last 12-14 months to narrow this example down without getting too involved with the adjustments made to the Antares position but suffice it to say that the adjustments were and still remain to get the most favorable position possible heading into the 4Q call. ie; 130% of planned allocation accumulated @3.85, 30% liquidated at solid profit resulting in lower break even cost avg.
The cash side is deployed for bargain hunting on over reaction sell-offs within the bio space. ie;Serepta @13.+, Ariad @3.00+, Arena @4.50+, even HALO which I set up a small position @12.90. These are just a few examples but they illustrate how great returns at significantly lower risk levels can be generated within the generally high risk nature of micro/small/mid cap bio.The trick of course is to make assessments quickly when an issue implodes to determine if the PPS will move from BAD to WORSE before rallyi
Topic Part III
The final leg of this analysis is centered around the fact that the QST endeavor, clear through the entire regulatory process, will require a very small cash commitment. (10M-15M?) If the cost to get QST to the market were more on the order of say 100M, then minor risks become more amplified.
The testosterone replacement market WILL still remain and be growing at the estimated date of launch for QST. There for, nothing other than a wildly lucrative "return on investment" is possible. The tougher question at this time is more accurately "how lucrative".
The breakdown illustrated in Part I calls for a 300M annual peak potential and it is realistic based on downward adjustments made to the total market size en lieu of labeling changes or other possible FDA action. 200M annual peak would still be a runaway success for Antares and best of all is that FV for the cash generation this kind of revenue would produce is only fractionally priced in to an ultra conservative total sum of assets estimate at least 25% above current market price for the shares.
What all this means is that if QST was the singular/lone product in development and the street had the shares valued at maybe 1 1/2 X peak @ 300M or 450M + cash then any slight tremors to the negative justifiably would be more detrimental to the shares because of fully priced in valuation and lack of product depth which Antares presently is the exact opposite.
Consider the content in Parts I, II, III, and the reason for my lack of QST concerns becomes glaringly apparent!
No RAH RAH SIS BOOM BAH cheerleader rally here! I refuse to be a part of any of that! Just numbers and facts as clearly laid out as I'm capable of.
Any comments? No but a serious question you could address . Why in the flying f does your pack leader keep selling his shares? And why cant you dumb numb skulls figure out that the stock has sucked from the day they did the offering of $4...17 MONTHS AGO?!?! All these numbers don't mean diddly-squat if the tribe leader does not believe in his own achievements. This company is starting to become an oasis and looks to have put all their eggs into one product...Otrexup. What happens if the numbers do not meet all this hyped up expectations? Move on to the next..QST? You guys give me great laughs everyday with all your talking head non-CENTS :)
Topic Part II
Continuing on, we'll move to a quick analysis of the most recent FDA statement. IMO, the best word to describe the statement in total is "benign".
I base the above on the following; "the agency has intentions of looking more closely into the safety of testosterone boosting products, but in the mean time, men shouldn't panic or stop taking their prescribed testosterone therapy without consulting their doctors"!
The above excerpt from the FDA statement also speaks for itself.
Continuing on, comments from MDs that are or have been vocal in support of more stringent candidate screening procedures all agree and recognize the benefits vs risks of testosterone therapy for those accurately diagnosed with low-T. More stringent procedures might begin, as example, with "multiple blood tests" vs one & done because of T level variances in a man throughout a 24 hr. time span.
The obvious conclusion here is that NO Phen Phen scale calamity has any chance of materializing out of the current concerns!
IMO Big pharma DOES probably have to tone down the Madison Ave sales pitch a bit though!
To be Con't
Good topic for a weekend Whogo! Part I
I did a little digging myself and I'll outline my reasons for relative lack of concern regarding the issue. Please excuse me if I take a break mid stream because I a'm relaxing while watching the Pebble Beach Pro Am and I also might feel compelled to have a snack or a gin & tonic.
First off, yes, the 5B annual US testosterone projections (various sources are aligned on this est) is accurate. Next, after analyzing the most recent statements out of the FDA, I factored in the specific area of concern/user demographic which is men above the age of 65 and all men with history of heart condition. This demographic represents the bulk of reported incidence. The size of this segment is somewhat of a grey area, so I estimate somewhere in the 25%-30% range of the total addressable market. So if we subtract the probably overstated 27.5% from 5B we get roughly a 3.65B market. Overstated IMO is the way to go because it would also cover market shrinkage via more stringent exam/script procedures. That said, I see Antares just showing up and garnering between 7%- 10% of the market or @8.5% midpoint or 300M+annual. FYI I currently have the in-house plat./pipeline (ex-Otrexup) valued at about 180M (QST/QSM/to be named) out of the not yet revised upward 600M + cash (670M FV assessment). The above speaks for itself for openers.
To be con't
Koufax, I appreciate your sound reasoning and insightful posts. I have been close to bailing several times on this company but I am up about 90% since the AIS days and really want the company to succeed. I think it is premature to bail out now when we are on the cusp of establishing a solid stream of income with Otrexup. Holding until at least second quarter numbers.
Koufax, why couldn't ATRS lead the market with QST? Let me just say first, I agree with your 7-10% of market estimation, as I believe it's much safer to project on the lower side. But if we've got the better product (which I firmly believe we do), at a similar price, why couldn't Antares push Androgel (and Axiron etc) to the side? I understand that marketing power is our biggest disadvantage, but say we partnered with a Pfizer? That would be a total game-changer, would it not?
All this FLUFF coming from the guy who just a few days ago told me that 4.30's were not going to happen. Umm sir, you might want to check and see if Thursday's 4.33 is considered the 4.30's :)
Koufax, I can point to a number of reasons but the final straw is the negative sentiment surrounding testosterone replacement. I anticipate the FDA issuing new guidance & potential lawsuits may put a kink in any chances for a buy-out & that's the only reason I was sticking around.
FierceBiotech had a story this week titled "AbbVie is hit with 5 lawsuits citing the dangers of its 'low T' drug"
& the previous weeks. "FDA investigating heart and stroke risks of using testosterone to treat 'low T'"
"Journal of the American Medical Association found that using testosterone increased the risk of death from heart attack or stroke by 29% in men with or without a history of heart disease." That's nothing to ignore.
IMS Health predicts the entire testosterone replacement market to hit $5 billion by 2017 so I'm sure that I'm overreacting but like I said, testosterone is the final dagger to push me out.
if FDA become more restrictive, the marker may not go to 5B by 2017 but to 3-4B.
ATRS could be well positioned to take about 10% of that, especially if the focus shifts more to treatment of medical conditions. For such conditions injections could be preferable to gel.
I believe the current weakness is not because of QST but the market want to see the launch data.
The last time I can recall this level of ymb pessimism was 2-3 months ago when we were below $4. We subsequently rose to $5 within a couple months. I consider this very bullish, especially as we're just above the 200 day, and with QST data and back to back CC's just around the corner.
Make that double-bullish with the red thumbs. Nobody ever said making money was easy, boys. So you've been long for a year and a half, building a position around the $4 level. As of yesterday's close you're still up 10%. And you've built a position that will pay off much more handsomely than that in the long run assuming you stay patient. Quit with the whining already - God, it's pathetic.
As others have pointed out, there will be plenty of opportunities for favorable re-entry points with Antares. This stock is itself somewhat puzzling, given all of the progress the company has made over the last year (and more recently with Leo partnership, personnel restructuring--namely, ramping up sales force for Otrexup launch--reasonably strong pipeline, etc.). And recently it seemed to find a new base (upper 4s) in its SP, which seemed to reflect a solid valuation of the company. So much going for ATRS, yet here we are again in the 4.35-4.45 range, not that far above the 200 dma. Still appears to have trouble attracting steady and committed investors. Haven't been invested in ATRS as long as many of the regular posters here, but agree that the upcoming Q report is a pivotal time for the company. Of course, it's not make or break, but quite significant nonetheless.
Needless to state, Antares represents my core position within the space @overweight because of it's limited risk characteristic. I assessed what a fair valuation for the shares actually is and I'm comfortable holding the stock particularly at IMO the long awaited/nearing "inflection point". 12-15 months ago I didn't feel the same and consequently held only a fraction of what I'm holding now!
That's basically it!
Keep in touch!
Don't worry about it Rad!
Maybe Whogo is my side kick and just the set-up man for me to drop a hammer on the doofusses that post spam on this MB!
I already smacked around "buy halo and sell atrs" to the point where he had to change his ID. Sure he wanted everyone to buy. Buy at the price he was email@example.com. The 12.90 I got works better for me!
ACAD? So much as a sneeze and the stock will be vaporized. Range bound for 6 months at "multi-indication valuation" and highly vulnerable to a hedge fund PR attack that could crater it. It may not unfold that way in the near term, but I don't underestimate the sway/influence the street moguls wield.
My mantra is whatever you do in life, try to do it the best of your ability and then some. I would certainly hope that the bashers have more than they've shown us thus far because they are woefully under achieving to this point!