Interesting how a week ago Seeking Alpha article was touting the strength and potential of the drug for the reason AFFY would be a possible takeover candidate for BAX. Then one week later another article from Seeking Alpha says the slow start means the company is not living up to predictions.
This author is biased and doesn't really understand the pharma industry:
1. The 1st 6 months of a drug launch typically determines a drug's success, not the first month or two.
2. PCRX had nearly 6 months to market Exparel and generate orders before launching it in April 2012. Looking at AFFY's efforts with Omontys again in September-October 2012 would be a better comparison to PCRX's efforts.
3. A survey can be "customized" to give you any outcome you are looking for, which makes LifeSci Advisors "survey" of nephrologists questionable. Were the Nephrologists: 1) top prescribers of EPO and other anemia therapies?; 2) open to prescribe any anemia therapy or were they working mainly with Davita to care for their dialysis patients? How did LifeSci select Neph's for their survey? How was the survey conducted? How many were surveyed? .......
4. What is the source of LifeSci's "prescription data" and sales$$?
Compared to other products in the CKD market, Omontys has the distinct advantage of once monthly dosing with a specific Q code for reimbursement, and AFFY has a clean slate with the folks they are selling to. GLTA!
I think it is a good sign they had any sales at all out of the gate. Their Q-code isn't even in place until July 1. Lets give this some time to run and get the sales force moving over the next few months.
The product is there. The management seems to have their s together. And the sales forces is just getting started against an entrenched incumbent. But as in all markets, you can be sure the better value proposition will rise to the top over time. You can bet on it given all the pre-emptive defensive measures by Amgen. No one does that crap unless they have to and know they are just trying to keep a portion of their past market share. Its called managing a mature product into its end-of-life...