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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

  • eurotyle eurotyle Sep 23, 2012 1:53 PM Flag

    Sales Exploding Plus Target Price Raised

    The average revenue estimate for the current quarter is $9.6m or so (averaged among analysts).

    Stock has been on fire because AFFY has already surpassed these numbers (currently July/August made up a total of $10.8 million alone without September).

    July sales - $2.8 million
    August sales - $7.9 million
    September sales - who knows, but it's definitely up from $7.9 million.

    Revenues might exceed double the expectations for the quarter.
    Piper Jaffray also upgraded their target to $26, up from $21 due to the sales increase.


    Since URL's are not allowed, search for this phrase your using search engine:

    Affymax Price Target Raised to $26.00 at Piper Jaffray

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Hi Euro or anyone, have you heard how many facilities have been signed with Fres and what # do you think will be announced at next Quarterly meeting? Thanks.

      • 2 Replies to mbracket123
      • Affymax, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFFY) price target has been increased to $28 from $20 by Lazard Capital.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • This is a really hard call. The original account allowed for a 100, then depending on performance (and maybe even convenience) of the treatment, hopefully we could push the needle to a anywhere between 250-500.

        From my analysis (I'm not a professional broker, however I do have a couple of college degrees in this field), the sales estimates and stock price also seem to be screaming that it's surely up from the original 100/test locations.

        If all goes well with the patient treatments, convenience of the treatments and convenience of Fresenius (by freeing up their staff, nurses and doctors by the reduced patient time at their office), this might be heading toward all their locations in the next 12-18 months.

        I haven't heard anything, not even a whisper on the street side discussing if Affymax could keep up with manufacturing if this were to occur (rocketing sales). We all know the Dendreon story regarding manufacturing...

        We all know Amgen and Johnson & Johnson could push billions of their versions of Epogen/Procrit therefore we shouldn't see any supply constraints on the Affymax side (at least this is my logical thinking).

        I still predict $30-$40 by year end, also considering all goes well with the markets, election, fiscal cliff, Europe, etc. On slow and positive days, we'll continue to outperform the market, however on those .50 to 1.00% plus drop days, we'll outperform on the downside, down 2-3%. It's an investment gamble like anything else, however I personally like the odds here still.

        I say in Q1, maybe even Q2 we should see at least $45-$55 per share in order to breach a double-top of the all-time high closing high of $40.25 achieved February of 2007. If we can breach $40.25 sometime 2013, then Affymax could really be off-to-the-races. However once again, we have to take into consideration the markets, Europe, etc.

        I don't see Affymax earnings to be problematic at this time. It's not as if were selling a branded product with a generic easily available here. It's just a matter of the product performing better that what previously worked (Epogen/Procrit).


        Most of the headwinds (excluding China's growth) seems to have been winding down as of late. Once the fiscal cliff is behind us, this should enable more tailwinds to propel markets forward.

        They say the bull rally cannot last forever, however I see 2013 being a topping out year, somewhere around 16,000-16,500 for the DJIA and 1650-1750 on the S&P500. Either late 2013 or early 2014, those bears might take over...

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hi Euro,

      Has the Healthcare Analytics data been quoted anywhere else besides Piper? Any way to find it directly that you know of?

      I love your analysis - if the monthly numbers are as quoted, then we could have a first 12 month rev number north of $200M - $300M range. That would be a blow-out home run and really set tehm up for success - either on their own or hugely valued acquisition target.

      Thanks. M

      • 2 Replies to mbracket123
      • MB,

        Your revenue estimates could be spot-on for FY 2013. These would be really huge numbers for FY 2013.

        Current year is only calling for $90 million, and next year (2013) the analysts are expecting revenue numbers of $124 million (both numbers are the mean of AFFY's analysts).

        The current revenue predictions range from $5m to $22 million (both ends of the spectrum). It's hard to predict since Omontys is basically a brand new drug. With sales of $2.8 in July then $8.9 in July and including September (anyone's guess), we could easily top-end of the spectrum number at $22 million.

        Even if September numbers come in only at half of August's (which is see as impossible), let's assume $4.5 million. Using all three numbers ($2.8, $8.9 and $4.5) we would still hit $16.2 million in sales, which surpasses the median analyst prediction of $14.4 million.

        I do my own homework, due diligence and research, however I like my odds here of a continual march to higher-highs and higher-lows.

        IBB has been under assault the past week and lost nearly 5 points therefore Affymax will also face some (probably call it overdue) resistance. Down days are also VERY HEALTHY for companies to solidify their shareholder base, weak-hands exit on 5% moves, etc. It's simply a re-positioning for higher-highs and higher-lows.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Piper crunched the data with Source Healthcare Analytics (SHA) as the article had stated. Interesting enough, SHA was recently acquired in early 2012, and their parent company is now Symphony Technology Group, or simply STG. STG is also based in Palo Alto, relatively local to Affymax.

        I'm a big follower of Ian Somaiya with Piper. His calls are usually spot-on. From his relative number-crunching, he predicted that since recently approved (when it was recently approved) that peak sales would reach $700m annually by 2017.

        The opportunity alone knocking on Affymax's door is immense. The past sales of Procrit, Epogen, etc. Medicare alone spends about $7 billion annually via reimbursements annually, yes, annually.

        The upside is relatively clear from hurdles for the time being.

        I see Affymax being around flying solo for awhile, eventually creeping their way to a $2-$3 billion valuation. Perhaps something else in the pipeline begins to emerge and then this might place them on a sure-fire acquisition target for larger fish in the industry.

        If monthly sales growth are on par, we should be a nicely profitable company by Q4 (maybe even Q3, depends on their costs).

        Have you seen the newly added jobs on LinkedIn for Affymax? They are surely hiring the right candidates for payroll.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • “We are raising our price target to $26 from $22 and increasing our Omontys estimates following release of August sales data by Source Healthcare Analytics, which supports our call yesterday for a 3Q upside surprise. August Omontys sales of $7.9mn represent a ~180% increase compared to July’s $2.8mn and already supports upside to consensus 3Q estimates of $10mn. This dramatic increase in sales represents rapid conversion by Fresenius Medical Care of 10,000 patients to Omontys from Amgen’s Epogen.,” Piper Jaffray’s analyst commented.

      • 1 Reply to toowan12
      • A couple close friends of ours are pharmacists for Walgreen's and allegedly Omontys might be coming to retail stores near you in the coming weeks. Omontys chatter was ramping up with their local district pharmacy manager.

        We reside in a suburb of Chicago therefore it's Walgreen's home turf (Chicago), therefore it might be solid sign that WAG's is going to be stocking or having this product close to many stores for 1-2 day shipping.

        Solid news nonetheless.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • I tried to cut and paste the article, but for some reason today I can not cut and paste anything at all to anyplace.

      • 1 Reply to this_isnt_my_real_alias
      • Simply visit your preferred search engine, be it G or Y and search for the article.

        Their going to blow this quarter out of the water.

        Even if Sept sales come in even with August, we're talking revenues of $19 mil for the quarter versus expectation of slightly more than $9 million.

        If sales grow 300% as they did from July to August for September, that puts September revenues at $23.7 million plus July/August combined (plus $10.7 million). That puts us at $34.4 million in revenues for the quarter.

        This is a monster number when the consensus is calling for between $9-$10 million.

        Anyone know what day in Sept does their quarter end? If it ended on the 10th, we would only pickup a 1/3rd of the months revenues. If it ends 9/30, we have the entire month.

        Either way, AFFY is going to blow the wheels off next Q's earnings report.

        This stock might see $30-$40 by end of year, depending if the momentum continues. Please look at PCYC chart to see what I'm seeing. I bought in PCYC at $16 and re-entered again @ $17.90.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

0.095+0.0040(+4.40%)Oct 9 3:17 PMEDT