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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

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  • mbracket123 mbracket123 Jan 8, 2013 6:59 PM Flag

    what happened between yesterdays high and todays crush ?? lol.......cant make this stuff up.

    Hi String, yo uare right very quiet. Please continue to contribute your insight. Here is how I just responded to the Motely Fool fluff opinion piece they just published today. That site has turned into nothing more than a pump site and outlet for bored wannabe journalists who just spew opinion with no real reporting/analysis:

    From Motley message board response to their video article today:

    "Hi Max,

    Not sure I understand your last comment where you say "growth (in stock price I presume) should be constrained as sales ramp." That doesn't really make any sense as you don't comment on what the growth in sales will be over the next two years or any other key metric as it relates to stock price.

    It seems to me that we will see a large increase in price if sales hit analyst consensus number in 2013 of $161.34M, up from $97.58M, all the while closing in on profitability. Personalty I tihnk the whole industry will switch to Omontys - as you said they will be driven primarily by cost and efficiency.

    If you do simple comparison to other fast growing bio companies you will see a comp of 7x - 10x next year sales, or $1.2B to $1.6B mkt cap. And I think they will actually grow much faster.

    Would appreciate your quantitative analysis to support your conclusions - otherwise these seem like just fluff opinion pieces. Thanks, Mike"

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    • mike- nice to meet u. just read ur post on that video repot. i too was confounded. the speaker made a bunch of positive promising statements and yet he seemingly was very short sighted if not irrational in his conclusion. i think i recall he said he likes affy mid term and long term but not so much short term because affy will have to make investments ? was he referring to advertising and commercial launch expenses ? he did not address the notion that based on his own positive outcome assumptions that affy is a takeover candidate. and like you say he treats the phrase "as sales ramp" much too casually ,)(( no numbers, no projections) to be in any position to conclude stock price at a future point in time. omontys will grab a nice chunk of the mkt share and you want to be in already as the new contracts are being published and before fresenius announces full expansion to all their clinics. i make my best profits ignoring free advice from cable tv, internet blogs, etc.....