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  • whygoelswhere whygoelswhere Jan 16, 2013 10:09 PM Flag

    Target for 2013: $30-45. 2014: $50-65 or buyout

    The Eyelea and Omontys launches do have a parralel in that they each have an easily identifiable market that is unserved even though drugs have been available for some time. For Eyelea it was patients who were wtill getting monthly doses of Lucentis (or Avastin), but still had lots of fluid in their eyes, Eyelea solved that very well in nearly all patients. Omontys has the peritoneal and home hemo dialysis populations who don't need to be in the clinic three times a week. Both have the advantage of less frequent dosing.

    That is where the similarities end. Eyelea had other clear advantages over Lucentis including less frequent dosing, but more importantly it has far greater affinity for VEGF, it is dosed less frequntly because it is more potent. Omontys is not clinically superior and the population with unmet needs is far smaller than the one REGN exploited. Also the buyer of Omontys are economically sensitive and the drug is a cost center for prescribers, while the buyers of Eyelea (insurance companies) have no influence on it's use and the prescribers see it as a rfit center. Most likely Omontys will find a niche in the dialysis market, but it will be nowhere close to Eylea. The launches of each drug are a stark reminder of this as Eyelea has had six consecutive massive beats of consensus, while it appears Omontys will be a dissapointment in its second full quarter after launch. The only lever AFFY has to pull to move market share is lowering price which just makes the revenue opportunity smaller and hurts their chances of ever being profitable.

    Competition is coming for both as well with biosimilar EPO and Mircera in the ESA market and AGN's DARPin (dosing once every four months) for Eyelea.

    Sentiment: Sell

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