Fundamentally the company has 2 years of cash reserves and an FDA approved drug that has received positive feedback.
Affymax has insurance in the event of lawsuits. Lawsuits take forever to develop out and the insurance will buffer these lawsuits Plus Takeda is paying for half if everything. So time is on the side of Affymax. Provided they expedite their investigation.
The FDA is allowing OMONTYS the same status it had before the problem emerged while Affymax conducts their investigation. They still have their approval in place. Nothing changes.
So my advice:
My advice is to take a small position and go long. Less than $2500 (if you are a retail trader), bank on loosing every penny, set your expectations low. The technical pressure the stock is experiencing has to be relieved sometime and with a low float of 34 million shares, of which 90% are institutionally held, there is no where to go but up. Also, if you are long and were caught in the drop, don’t worry hang in there. This is NASDAQ and stranger things have happened.
The executives at AFFY, are earning their paycheck today. They are managing a vigorous investigation, plus are preparing an aggressive defenses against the wave of lawsuits (that may all disappear if everything goes right).
More on why should you buy?
I found and posted a comment on the seeking alpha article that alludes to iron sugars being the possible vector. It could also be the manufacturing process but I doubt it. Then I started seeing Pharmacists and Doctors popping up in support of the drug and the posts and comments contains some very good point to the contrary saying it is not OMONTYS.
Fresenius Medical Care North America is the company that administers the drug. The iron sugars that Fresenius administers is an iron sucrose called Venofer and the package insert from Venofer cites the fact that anaphylactic reactions have occurred. This is the first line on their safety disclaimer: Serious hypersensitivity
Do we have any idea where the severe allergic reactions and deaths occurred? The earlier statement out of Fresenius on Feb. 14 indicated the drug was well tolerated with minimal side effects. Did the problems occur at a much smaller center?
Fresenius Medical Care North America is the company that administers the drug. The iron sugars that Fresenius administers is an iron sucrose called Venofer and the package insert from Venofer cites the fact that anaphylactic reactions have occurred. This is the first line on their safety disclaimer: Serious hypersensitivity reactions, including anaphylactic-type reactions, some of which have been life-threatening and fatal, have been reported in patients receiving Venofer.
It could have been the Iron Surcrose. No one can say with certainty.
There is test data provided on the Venofer label that discusses a percentage of cardiac distress and anaphylactic emergencies.
The Venofer iron sucrose is administers at the same time as OMONTYS so there might be something to it.
(I am not faulting Fresenius or Venofer)
So did I mention that all gaps close? Eventually they do, maybe not this month, year or two years, but at some point in time they have to.